It does seem rather similar to the collapse of Soviet Russia. Increasingly little confidence in the government by citizens all across the country. States that increasingly aren't seeing any benefit in existing as part of the union. Its quite uncanny actually.
There are differences of course bcz there isn't as big of different ethnic groups concentrated throughout the country ready to start their own countries bcz they never wanted to be part of the country in the first place.
I really dont want to find out whats on the other side of that scenario for us, but it doesn't seem completely unlikely.