The odds of China invading Taiwan successfully and a single chip fab still functioning or being recoverable is 0%.

First of all the fabs are among the most complex projects in the world and the Taiwanese will just blow them up. China can do nothing about that. The workforce of those fabs will also try their best to move abroad. That is also why the US is building those fabs, so they can just have the Taiwanese work in those fabs.

Also Taiwan is a nightmare to invade. It is obviously an island, so you need to ship over the soldiers. We have seen in Ukraine, how fairly cheap seadrones can destroy ships and this is going to happen to China as well. Then Taiwan itself is either densly populated meaning urban warfare, which is really bad or it is a bunch of densly forested mountains, which might be even worse. Add to that sanctions and very likely problems with shipping and this is an insanely expensive thing to do. No amount of chip production is going to save China in that case.

Invading Taiwan is a very dumb idea indeed. I hope China is smart enough to not go for that.