Russia's calculus to invade Ukraine was based off the assumption that they could win in a few days if they invaded, and if they didn't invade, they would have a hostile, NATO-backed state on their border.
The first has proven hilariously wrong, and the second is only possible if Ukraine remains a buffer.
Given that Russia was selling 10y bonds at 17% and wages were skyrocketing due to the war industry tightening the labor market, I'm genuinely quite curious what the local political ramifications will be when Putin doesn't have a war to distract everyone, his fellow billionaires want to cut wages, and loans start to come due.