[–] 2 points 8 months ago

There are quite a few other things that can happen over here.

Since terminals are still required even if all work is done in the data centres, those companies can now get deals with other AI companies to normally provide devices to them. Or those companies can just normally buy those things off of the distributors. This can in turn greatly increase commodity laptop/desktop prices for us.

US can try "helping" Taiwan and threaten Xi with that, to relax their laws for said companies.

Finally, the governments can start requisitioning computing hardware from us. Honestly, I am just counting my days until this, despite the recent govt. chip making progress.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    If its true that ...

    Many consumer electronics manufacturers 'will go bankrupt' by the end of 2026 thanks to the RAMpocalypse

    ... then im sure that lots of those companies will be more than willing to make restrictive deals with these chinese manufacturers. If they violate the conditions of those deals they can get cut off and be forced to go bankrupt again.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (5 children)

    How much would it matter?
    Even if they are Chinese manufacturers, they would want to go with the high-price buyer, which is larger companies.
    And if they do keep some reserve for people, out of some long-term-thought or maybe just some morals, wouldn't they just prefer selling inside China?

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago* (5 children)

    Won’t AI companies just fill enough orders to empty all that extra produce?

    Depends on whether China is interested in helping to build western datacenters. If big Xi says "no selling to US military contractors" (which all big AI companies are) then that is how its gonna be.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    Kind of odd that none of the “national security” idiots in the US have started ringing the alarms about this yet.

    ... because they are in on it.

    eat up the entire consumer segment

    Won't AI companies just fill enough orders to empty all that extra produce?

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  • [–] 34 points 8 months ago (8 children)

    And the only ones that will actually grow are Chinese companies that dont rely on western owned semiconductor fabs. Kind of odd that none of the "national security" idiots in the US have started ringing the alarms about this yet. At this point China will fully catch up (at least in terms of RAM manufacturing) in just a few years and eat up the entire consumer segment.

    https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinas-cxmt-and-ymtc-to-expand-memory-output

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  • [–] 11 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    Starting to look like that honestly

    Edit: and they probably like the AI is flooding the open source market with shitty code and PR that can make it hard to know which projects/PR actually is actually done through human efforts for the betterment of the society

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  • [–] 33 points 8 months ago (10 children)

    What are the chances that this is orchestrated to bring more computing control to the larger companies who can weather the storm? If end users don't have ram or storage that will make it even easier to push them into walled garden cloud platforms.

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  • [–] 19 points 8 months ago

    Thats what I think. If they had the super secret "next best thing", they'd be pumping it for all its worth. The models themselves have felt asymptoted since 4.0. The engineering around those models has improved, but the underlying models haven't.

    There is also a hanging chad around alignment. There was much-ado when I think it was 4.0 or 3.5, around some jailbreaks. Everytime a jailbreak got fixed, the models got worse.

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  • [–] 67 points 8 months ago (16 children)

    None of this makes any sense unless there is some super secret versions of these AI that they're holding back from the public. Nothing about the current models is what they claim it to be. Its a useful tool, sure, but its really only as useful as the skill of the operators, and I don't mean "prompt engineer" or whatever other bullshit you call that. I mean actually developers and engineers who have had the time in the trenches to know what is going to work or not work.

    Use AI to generate a codebase for an app. Get to an MVP. Then, try and make a change. I dare you to. Its a fucking disaster. These models are not up to the task. Its a structural issue. They have no conception of how things fit together. They're constantly just making shit up whole-cloth, and beyond that, they're just gaslighting you to sound smarter than they are.

    They can be used to make demos. They can be used to solve already solved, well trodden problems. But thats really about it. You'll spend 4 hours trying to get it to change one basic component. They're exponentiating the amount of calories burned, but not the amount of work done.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago*

    Saw this yesterday. I’ve been toying with upgrading my storage for a while anyway, grow with my needs rather than scramble when I run out, so just said fuck it and picked up 40tb of refurbished surveillance drives.. figure it’s probably not gunna get cheaper for a while, and the used market is gunna reflect the shortage in short order as well, so while I really don’t have the money for it right now, I’d rather spend this amount than spend twice as much (or more) later when I can afford it.

    That almost triples my space, so should be plenty until the drives die. And if storage gets cheaper again quickly, well, that’s good too. This was still about what I was expecting to pay already for that storage, so doesn’t feel like a mistake.

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  • [–] 11 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    get ready for ads like

    'hey dumbshits, pay us money to use our computers for all your cloud gaming needs since computers are too expensive... we promise not to increase the costs every 6 months' - some dogshit company like microslop

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