[–] 0 points 2 weeks ago

Well to your first point, you can go yourself to their website. Everything is public, and they even have a handy page just on revisions: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm

Secondly, Trump did not fire anyone other than the commissioner, and did not replace anyone at the BLS. They lost a ton due to DOGE and the DRP, but were under a hiring freeze until recently. You can check USA jobs for past listings.

And yes, while leadership could theoretically push certain measurements or methodologies that might skew things in a certain direction, again, at the BLS that functionally can't be done without a large hue and cry. The commissioner has very little say in program methodologies. Erica Groshen, a former commissioner, is extremely active on social media and often mentions how if there were anything out of the ordinary rank and file would go nuts. You can imagine that's true given the org has people on both political sides, and gets accused by the other party's supporters of cooking the books no matter who is in charge, even though methodology changes extremely slowly and is always published online.

To that matter, I am unaware of any changes to inflation measurements during Trump 2, other than I think alternative data sources (e.g. getting datasets from companies/third parties rather than measuring prices at a store), but I'd have to go dig through their methodology publications, which are all wide open and public in the website as well.

The takeaway here is that there is so much sunshine on all of these processes and data it's functionally impossible for the stats to be a lie. Even earlier reporting this year that imputations (estimating data they can't physically measure) were way up was still way below the margin of error, and that alone was a huge "scandal". That was down to the Trump admin starving them of money and staff, and guess what happened a few months later? Suddenly they're hiring again, because I assume Republicans behind the scenes got pissy about less accurate data, even if it didn't actually change anything except the measures of accuracy.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 weeks ago*

    Totally reasonable question. The question is would you rather have very accurate numbers three months late, or fairly accurate numbers barely a month late? That's the calculus, and in the current era of a complete lack of trust in government, there's...kind of an argument for three months late, but really businesses and the public overwhelmingly want the numbers earlier and can adjust based on predictions of revisions (which they do), so one month it is. Plus, these are very old programs and the publishing procedures have been set for quite a long time.

    I'd caveat though that there is absolutely no reason you can't trust these numbers. See my comment above in this thread about reliability of BLS statistics. In an era where there are legions of former public health officials who quit and blow the whistle on things happening in that sector, I'm not sure what makes people think that a bunch of statistics nerds wouldn't do the same thing. Plus, as the ostensibly pro business side, Republicans like accurate Principal Federal Economic Indicators at least as much as Democrats. Who do you think uses these stats?

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  • [–] 4 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

    This has absolutely nothing to do with that, and the commissioner also has absolutely no control on any numbers that come out of the BLS, only the language in final reports. There's not some magic "cook the books" button the commissioner can push, anyway. This is an org with thousands of employees and hundreds of automated programs and processes that can't just be changed willy nilly, with monitored databases and backups upon failsafes and legions of bureaucrats who would absolutely scream to high heaven if there were even a whisper of a hint of manipulation. You can't have a conspiracy with thousands of statistics nerds who swear an oath to be impartial. You just can't.

    And anyway, there are ALWAYS jobs revision numbers. In times of expansion, they're usually revised upwards, and in times of contraction they're usually revised downwards. This is only (financial) news because it happens, not because it's a surprise. Everyone could have predicted this, and indeed when you read articles before ethe revisions come out they often mention the upcoming revision. The surprise is usually the magnitude, not usually the direction and certainly not the fact that there is a revision.

    This is just caused by the structure of the employment survey, where bigger firms answer the questions faster but smaller firms usually take longer to get their answers in due to not having dedicated staff, ease of gathering the numbers, or long standing procedures - take your pick. Those same smaller firms are also the ones most likely to be affected by swings in the economy, so in times of expansion are more likely to be hiring, and in uncertain or downswing times, are more likely to have lower hiring or lower growth. But the initial numbers assume things are more or less steady until they get official responses in, and then revise to the more accurate numbers. So big nothing burger from a reliability of statistics standpoint, this is just the choice made between having accurate statistics three months late, or kinda accurate statistics a month late that are then revised to be be more accurate.

    As for this report, the only news here is that job growth is still sluggish, confirmed by stats - not that there's some grand conspiracy because people don't take the time to understand how things actually work. Being complicated or obtuse doesn't mean it's corrupt. It means you're out of your element.

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  • [–] 19 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Yes, this is an echo chamber. Yes, most things are very samey. You don't see alternative opinions because this is a TINY community. Like crazy tiny. Lemmy has what, 60,000 active users? You know a ton of those are bots too. Even after a reddit exodus that site gets what, 2 million daily users*? So you've got a crazy small group but it's also very similar in type of person who is here. It's overwhelmingly educated middle aged men with a tech background or focus. So you've got a limited pool of opinions to draw on, and then EVEN if you do occasionally get a different opinion, even within that narrow band of experience it can get voted down or swarmed.

    Look, I only lurk here occasionally, and I see stuff I disagree with constantly. I see stuff in this thread I disagree with. But I don't post about it because it's not worth it. I also don't have time to argue a minority opinion on the internet, and my life is better since I stopped doing that. And I guarantee I'm not alone. But I ASSURE you this is a bubble.

    ...but if it makes you feel better though, most people live in bubbles. I have been lucky to grow up in a very different place than I live, and I've found that politically, most Americans absolutely talk past one another because they are incapable of understanding "the other side" because they've never truly talked to people on the other side or listened to them, much less lived with them and understood them. This isn't enlightened centrist BS, I have a side I agree with, but I also don't misrepresent the views of people I disagree with based on no actual knowledge. And with non politics it's very similar - small groups beget small opinion spaces based on a small pool of experiences. Whether that's cars or AI or Linux.

    We used to get exposed to people with different life experiences and opinions in so-called "third places", and we don't have them anymore. Way fewer people go to chuch and the middle of the road protestant mainline has been subsumed. Social clubs like the elks and masons are far less popular. 12% of the population doesn't serve in the military with a socioeconomic cross-cut. Kids don't even have malls, sports start specializations early, and the Internet, almost worst of all, has made it easier than ever to get a social fix consuming only content from those most like you or what is algorithmically fed to you.

    Anyway, things are bad, I do not have a solution, but I have a little bit of time and feel compelled to post when you are practically begging for unpopular opinions. So my unpopular opinion is holy shit is this place an echo chamber, and if you don't feel that deep in your bones you need to immediately drive 2 hours outside of whatever city you live in and go to a pancake breakfast hosted by some local scout troop, go to some small town festival and talk to people, or hell go visit a church of a religion you don't belong to. And don't talk to people your own age, or same familial structure. Talk to someone who thinks voting is dumb. Talk to someone who doesn't care which Linux distro you're on because they don't even HAVE a computer, they just have an iPad.

    ...and yes, realistically you're probably not gonna make a connection that way without moving somewhere, and I'm obviously being mostly flippant, but at least don't turn on conservative tiktok or watch Fox News and expect that to be "the other side". Experiencing a different bubble is "growth" I guess, but people aren't the bubbles they live in, and actually talking to them is a way better way to understand WHY we disagree, not just how. Again, like I said, I don't have real solutions on how to do that. I just have the answer to your question and yes this place is a bubble.

    *Note I'm pulling those numbers out of my ass, but I bet I'm close on orders of magnitude. And yes I know reddit is half bots too.

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago*

    I think I'm gonna fix my partitions so I can distro hop, then check out bazzite. Keep hearing good things. Even though I do dabble in programming and AI image generation and other desktop stuff, I do mostly just game.

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  • [–] 4 points 11 months ago (4 children)

    I'm glad you've had a good go of it. I've been very unimpressed with Linux Mint. I expected it to be fiddly, I didn't expect it to just...not work out of the box. Like freezing up on the initial screens as part of the welcome tour? Baked in features like linking up with Google drive just...not working? Losing sound in games when messaged on discord, the de facto standard for side by side gaming audio? And all of these issues reported multiple times in multiple forums, with like 8 different solutions proposed depending on who you asked, with a healthy amount of "well that's not a problem, it must be your machine's fault" when it's happening to multiple people?

    I fixed some of the issues after serious googling, and I'll get it working fully eventually, but I could never in a million years recommend it to someone unless they shared my desire to go mostly open source with high privacy, or were very tech-savvy. I even thought it would be a scenario like, I play admin and get things set up, then can hand off a working computer to my wife or daughter. Not a chance for the wife, and we are going to really need to keep leaning into programming for the kiddo. Maybe she'll be a tech whiz who likes fixing things, but if she needs something reliable for school some day it'll be a Chromebook or (gross) a Mac.

    It's customizable as hell, it's free and open-source, and it's helping my computer skills, so I'll keep going with it for sure. But if I didn't love learning and problem solving and simultaneously have HUGE issues with privacy and Windows whole direction... I can't imagine sticking with it.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Obviously the Internet plays a big role in this as people have said, but it's worth mentioning this was also the era where tv stopped sucking (from reality tv awfulness to a bunch of absolute banger dramas), AND where Netflix and then other streaming services became available. So there are huge competition effects.

    I've also never bought fully into the "reading good TV bad" mindset. Leisure is leisure, especially if the article's raised point is "identifying with literary characters". That certainly happens in other forms of media. Even if it's reading to learn, I watch a LOT of YouTube these days, and probably 75% of what I watch is how to and instructional. Also let's not forget with each new form of leisure: "fast-paced music" (classical), books for the masses, magazines, tv, jazz, rock and roll, DnD, the internet, VR etc....there was always someone saying the new stuff will rot your brain while they pine for something that was maligned when it was new.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (1 child)

    I don't think there's some nefarious "they" cabal here, certainly not an organized one trying to discourage biking. Occam's Razor is there are a few different types of people supporting this. Chief among them are just carbrained people who can't fathom biking for transportation, who don't realize how slow that is when they've only toodled on a 35 pound mountainbike recreationally at 10 mph. Then you've also got people who have almost been hit by a delivery scooter thinking "ebikes are a menace" solely because they're new and something some "other" group of people uses, and so it's easy to say "they must be stopped" while ignoring the crazy fast, way heavier cars they're already desensitized to.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    That attitude is crazy prevalent. I ride an ebike in DC, and after passing a guy on his acoustic bike, he caught up to me to bikeshame me for riding "a motorcycle", and complained how he almost gets run over by ebikes every day (I was nowhere near him, I think he thought he was being funny). Ok, sure dude. I'm sure it's ebikers almost run over you every day, not the thousands of distracted drivers.

    The worst part is the dude ran two stop signs to catch up to me, while wearing no helmet. I've never seen such a clear posengeur who couldn't deal with being passed. I am not your safety problem, bro.

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  •  

    If there's one thing makers have, it's a lot of stuff. Both tools to create things, and created thing themselves! I'm really curious what storage solutions everyone has used. We're thinking about a furniture/house rearranging and I'm going to need to commit to a system soon.

    I've looked at #gridfinity (https://gridfinity.xyz/) and it seems ok, but definitely skewed more toward the small parts, electronic components and 3d printing world. I have a lot of woodworking tools, fasteners and hardware and home DIY stuff as well as electronics, so I need a much more holistic solution. Right now I'm leaning towards a French cleat system along a couple walls and just building custom shelves/boxes for big stuff and then trying to find a way to organize all my smart parts and just attach that system to the cleats, but I definitely want to see more ideas. I've looked at Harbor Freight boxes and some custom 3d printed solutions, but post your organization systems here!

     

    Full disclosure: I'm literally just stealing content from Reddit so there's some stuff to browse here while the user base builds up. I didn't create this, but luckily there's a Thingiverse link so you don't have to give them traffic if you don't want to or you're like me and can't after June (mobile user).

    But anyway, I love simple little usable 3d prints like this. Figurines are cool, but function over form is like my personal printing preference.

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