More precisely, it depends on the moral compass of five psychopaths.
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So, doomed?
Definitely shores up the "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" argument.
It depends on the incentive structures bult into the socioeconomic system. That's mainly profit maximization. Moral compasses just don't get into it. It may seem they do if you're a worker, perhaps lower middle management. The higher you go, the more success is dependent solely on executing the corporate strategy that comes from above, and the strategy given by the board always boils down to - grow profits. It doesn't matter much who exactly the people are in the different positions. If Sundar Pichai fails to grow Google's profits for some time, he'll be replaced with someone who will. His moral compass cannot stand in the way of growing profits, even if he had one.
Why especially in this community assume that corporate closed AI are all that matters?
These five people are taking bad decisions regarding AI. Thankfully, there are dozens of others who work on open models and who want to keep things open.
Then why think things depend on the moral compass on some people if you think there is an unescapable dynamics that's at work?
I do think that open source community is winning that battle and it's an important battle and the ego of this five psychopath is kind of obscuring that huge victory that's won by hundreds, thousands of developers and researchers.
I don't think GLM or Anthropic or OpenAI are "guys", good or not. They are companies, you don't anthropomorphize these, they are beings that only crave for profit.
Actual people with actual morality are the people who are deciding to work there or to quit there. There's a reason why OpenAI is bleeding people. There's a reason why people like Le Can accepted to work for a company like Meta but imposed that they continue to publish.
The five people that this article mentions are the trees that hide the forest.
The inescapable mechanic is that the most egocentric people capture all the spotlight, almost by definition, but they are not AI, they are not the developers, they are not the researchers, they are not the people who innovate there. They are the people who take working efforts and turning into a soulless profit machine that often drives moral people away.
I wish we were less blind to the actual dynamics at play and were spending less time on people trying to get artificial spotlight.
AI (frontier LLMs) are capital intensive. In that way, it's unlike many other kinds of software. I don't think near-frontier open source models will be a thing for very long. Even if you have the papers that describe everything, it will take many millions of dollars just in compute to train frontier models, and then a small army of people doing reinforcement tuning. The people who invest that capital will want to maximize returns and will be hostile to the idea of open source.
Another capital intensive industry that arguably does a lot of good, and probably has a lot of idealist researchers is pharma. It's also one of the most predatory industries.
Because it costs a lot of money to train models, whether open or closed, so the people with money are in charge. Yes, local AI is awesome but we're not going to see newer versions without that money being spent by someone.
Actually, training a very big model on trillions of tokens using huge clusters is one way of doing that, but certainly not the only way.
Communities have been fine-tuning models on much smaller machines and on a budget of hundreds of bucks.
Right now, money is abundant and feeds even open on its models, so it would be stupid to not go in that direction. But when it dries up, it won't be the end of models improving.
Good thing the people have always made such good decisions!
the people’s champion - Qwen - seems to have split or gone closed weights for 3.7.
Qwen Image 2 made some big announcements about being small and all-purpose, and still hasn't released, months later. Some recent video models are similarly absent. Red flags.
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