Leads in the polls at 35%, so he is far off a majority. People like simple narratives about someone "winning" an election as it's easier to follow, but realistically even if he "wins" with 35% he will also struggle to form a stable government or exercise power.

We're seeing this pattern across Europe at the moment - electorates are fragmented and split, as politicians seem incapable of offering what people actually want. In the UK for example, current opinion polls have us on a 5-way split between Labour, Conservatives, Reform, Green and Lib Dems. This is despite Labour winning a big majority in the election only 2 years ago.

Bulgarians always have a soft spot for Russia for helping them gain independence from the Ottomans.