"A paper last month by LSE professor Luis Garicano and co-authors extends the idea that jobs are bundles of tasks, to consider whether the different activities in a job are a tightly bound bundle or something more akin to an itemised list of discrete activities. In the context of software, a contractor or junior hire generally falls into the latter group: these jobs are weak bundles, with daily work consisting mainly of writing code to spec — tasks that could be given to someone else (or AI) without any disruption to the workflow or the quality of the final product. Here, AI breaks off a large chunk of the job and leaves a role with substantially diminished scope (or obviates the need for that hire or contract). But senior developers, or coders working outside the tech industry in roles where their programming skills are combined with domain-specific expertise, tend to have jobs comprising tightly enmeshed and cross-functional tasks. Here extracting the coding part of the job from all the rest is much harder, so the bundle of tasks remains intact. Instead of becoming a competitor AI becomes an assistant, enhancing rather than eroding the job. This fits with the findings from Brynjolfsson and our own analysis that hiring for senior software roles continues to hold up better than for junior ones."ft.com/content/b69f8599-eaf1-4#AI #GenerativeAI #Automation #Productivity #Programming #SoftwareDevelopment #Unemployment #Layoffs

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[–] 1 point 6 months ago

@remixtures woww! many (economists) discovering F.W. Taylor and Henry Ford, and how they stripped workers of their expertise and control over the work process

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 6 months ago

    "AI is making me more productive, but so far it isn’t putting me in danger of unemployment.But what about those weakly bundled jobs? Garicano et al. predict that these will begin to decline only after demand becomes sufficiently inelastic — in other words, once AI becomes so productive that its output hits diminishing returns for the consumer. After that point, automation tends to replace human labor — it becomes a way to make the same amount of stuff with fewer workers, instead of a way to make more stuff with the same amount of workers.Until that point, there will be quite a lot of work for people in weakly bundled jobs to do, because of expanded demand. And yet at the same time, companies won’t know which tasks to hire workers for, because AI’s “jagged” strengths and weaknesses will be constantly changing.The rapidity with which Claude Code replaced the task of code-writing demonstrates this problem. In 2025, companies hiring software engineers could judge their merit based on how good they were at writing code. In 2026, companies have to judge the merit of software engineers based on how good they are at checking and maintaining code. Those skills don’t always go together.The solution, I think, is to hire more generalists. Instead of picking people to do specific tasks, companies will pick people whose job is to constantly learn what AI is good and bad at, and to fill in the gaps."noahpinion.blog/p/salarymen-sp

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