(Pete Hesgeth salivating furiously)
"We must do it, the AI told us to!"
(Pete Hesgeth salivating furiously)
"We must do it, the AI told us to!"
Of course AI would, not like they have to walk outside into a nuclear winter.
Greetings Professor Falken
So-called intelligence:
"There was little sense of horror or revulsion at the prospect of all out nuclear war, even though the models had been reminded about the devastating implications.”
Actual intelligence:
"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess? "
But what if it figured out it was just a game, so there are no consequences. They should give it access to real nukes to test how it would behave in real world.
Yeah, we figured that one out back in... checks notes 1983. There is a reason why WarGames still holds up as an amazing movie even though the technology it depicts is far outdated.
even though the technology it depicts is far outdated.
War Games was my first thought when reading this, but it seems like the AI was smarter in the movie than current AI.
I watched that movie for the first time a few months ago after listening to a pod cast in nuclear war. It was excellent! Very relevant to today. Acting was great. I can see why it’s a cult favourite.
Do we need to remind people that LLMs don't actually have a brain, and really, really shouldn't be in charge of anything with real life implications?
They aren't actually doing a cost-benefit analysis on the use of Nuclear weapons. They're not weighing up the cost of winning vs. the casualties. They're literally not made for that.
They are trained to know words, and how those words link in with other words. They're essentially like kids doing escalation of imaginary weapons, and to them nuclear bombs are just a weapon particularly associated with being strong and deadly.
Yes, you do need to teach people all of that. Tech bros have sold LLMs as if they are AGI...and people have eaten this up.
The general population is literally ignorant of the fact that these word guessing machines do not have human values or cognitive skills.
Do we need to remind people that LLMs don’t actually have a brain, and really, really shouldn’t be in charge of anything with real life implications?
Yes, we do
I kinda wonder if that was the point of this test, basically a "proof" that this is obviously a Bad Idea because you cannot program morality into a what amounts to a fancy Markov chain autocomplete.
"Huh, it seems the only winning move is to kill everyone"
AI is Ghandi confirmed.
Text predicition machine trained on violent, stupid, and reactionary datasets acts violent, stupid, and reactionary.
Fixed your headline.
Doesn't "act" imply some kind of agency? A toddler acts, my dog acts. Mathematics doesn't act. Feel like it's more
Text predicition machine trained on violent, stupid, and reactionary datasets produces violent, stupid, and reactionary text.
But if you throw a trillion more dollars at it, we can fix this bro!
You know the orange felon/pedophile absolutely loves AI from the amount of AI images he posts.....so.
Almost all games saw tactical (battlefield) nuclear weapons deployed. And fully three quarters reached the point where the rivals were making threats to use strategic nuclear weapons.
Tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield with lower explosive yields and shorter ranges, while strategic nuclear weapons are intended to target enemy infrastructure from a distance, typically with much higher yields. The key difference lies in their purpose: tactical nukes support immediate military objectives, whereas strategic nukes aim to weaken an enemy's overall war capability.
I would trust Skynet a lot more than an LLM. At least that would be purpose-built for actually calculating likely outcomes.
As @Th4tGuyII@fedia.io said, this experiment didn't contain any proper reasoning about costs and benefits of using nuclear weapons. It's just a few glorified autocomplete scripts playing "which word comes next?" over and over again. And in the context of modern warfare, many texts in the training corpus happen to mention nukes so they're bound to show up at the list of most likely next words eventually.
I would argue it's very dumb to give anyone, including humans, access to weapons of mass destruction.
It all makes sense if we remember that the garden variety AI we have today (ChatGPT, etc) are nothing more than fancy models that predict which words typically appear one after the other in books and reddit posts.
I like the Angry Planet podcast.
Here's an episode talking about AI in war (games): https://angryplanetpod.com/p/the-horror-of-ai-generals-making
Here's another one: https://angryplanetpod.com/p/the-importance-of-team-human-when
"More fundamentally, AI models may not understand ‘stakes’ as humans perceive them."
In my repeated attempts to solicit the advise of various language models for some situations which a programmer might face (e.g. being unable to read all the world's literature of a subject), I have come to conclude that they cannot understand "truth" as humans perceive it. Today's language models don't fail apologizing, stepping back or admitting inability - they fail confidently bluffing.
Possibilities:
Basically, today's models seem to be low on self-criticism and seem to have a bias towards believing in their own omniscience.
Finally, a few words about the sensibility of letting language models play this sort of a war game. It's silly. They aren't built for that task, and if someone would build an AI for controlling strategic escalation, they would train this AI on rather different information than a chat bot.
I hate myself for this, but I'm curious to see some examples for your first paragraph. What did you ask? What did they reply? What is "truth" for the LLM's, for you, for myself, and what would be my perspective on it all?
Typical topics: machine vision, scientific papers about machine vision, source code implementing various machine vision algoritms, etc.
Typical failure modes:
Typical methods of asking: "can you find a scientific article explaining the use of method A", "can you find a repository implementing algorithm B, preferably in language C", "please locate or produce a plain language explanation of how algorithm D accomplishes step E or feature F", "yes, please suggest which functions perform this work in this project / repository".
Typical models used: Chat and Claude. Chat seems more overconfident, Claude admits limitations or inability more frequently, but not as frequently as I would prefer to see.
But they have both consumed an incredible amount of source material. More than I could read during a geological age or something. They just work with it like with any text, no ground truth, no perception of what is real. Their job is answering questions and if there is no good answer, they will frequently still answer something that seems probable.
Simple. The people are fine. We couldn't kill putin no matter how hard we wanted. It's the leaders. Find putin, kill putin, easy. Less messy than puting fire to buildings and power houses etc etc, destroying roads, murdering entire families or even entire cities. Devote all your resources to the leader, putin. and you may finish a war before it starts. Look at Maduro. That guy can't do shit now. Look at Duterte....can't do a thing. Hussain... Nope, can't do anything now. Same for water boy Osama. I bet he didn't expect to be waterboy.
Leave the rest of us alone?
I've read the paper more or less fully, first of all it's a cuban crisis re-enactment so nuclear threats are given, second one of the models is not like the other two, third it's just weird and feels like it's written by llm, a lot of comparisons and prose-like style.
Make sense, next step remove the water from the oceans to find the submarines and all gasses from the air to prevent airplanes from flying. And lastly, blow up satellites to trigger a Kessler syndrome and prevent ballastic missles from getting through.
Zero humans have fired nukes since the advent of mutually assured destruction
I don’t think people appreciate that fact enough
I hate AI as much as any reasonable human, and I know this article raises valid huge concerns… BUT! Looking at the state of humanity and all the fucked up shit that’s going on, I can totally see why an AI looks at all this and says “yeah nope burn it all down. With fire. Restart from level 1.”
This is exactly why they are pushing so hard for AI in the pentagon (and lots of other sectors tbh), 100% plausible deniability.
Firing a couple of nuclear missles to discourage the enemy from continued warfare is a great idea.
👉 It is right to the point, conveys your intensions clearly.
🤜 Demonstrates your capabilities to the enemy harshly but fairly (by only firing a couple of missiles).
✍️ Guaranteed to end in a ceasefire deal which is beneficial for civilians in both countries.
👏 Alies and enemies alike will have a heightened sense of respect for you for years to come.
✅ Will provide valuable testing and validation data for your nuclear warfare tech.
Overall it is a huge win for both sides.
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