Or maybe Tesla

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMKyocHwUJI&list=UU9rJrMVgcXTfa8xuMnbhAEA - video
https://pivottoai.libsyn.com/20260202-musk-wants-to-merge-spacex-with-xai-then-go-public - podcast

time: 5 min 18 sec

UPDATE: the merge has gone through, apparently for "$250 billion" of imaginary value of private company equity

all 54 comments

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[–] 58 points 9 months ago (2 children)

he loves to do this... roll the failures into the successes and pretend it was all awesome all the time.

what a fuckwad

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  • [–] 30 points 9 months ago (25 children)

    SpaceX can't go bankrupt... You won't let us go bankrupt... It would be a shame if all those satellites lost their ability to be maintained. This is how he becomes too big to fail.

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  • [–] 17 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    When Woke 2 comes, we'll nationalize SpaceX.

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  • [–] 12 points 9 months ago

    @Seaguy05 @techtakes Bear in mind SpaceX's near monopoly is transient: Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is now flying and re-using New Glenn and ramping up launch cadence aggressively. Give it 5 years and unless Starship works 100% to plan, SpaceX will be eroding like Tesla today. (And this ignores the multiple Chinese reusable launcher startups with government backing.)

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  • [+] 3 points 9 months ago (21 children)
  • [–] 11 points 9 months ago (20 children)

    Kessler syndrome, and historically starlink’s satellites don’t always burn up in the atmosphere as they should

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago (17 children)

    For the millionth time, if every satellite in the starlink constellation were to fail today, they would be gone in about five years at the high end. They are low enough in the atmosphere that they have to fire station-keeping rockets to maintain orbit. If they collide, the small pieces deorbit even faster due to drag.

    From this article:

    At around 400 kilometers and into the 500-km realm — home to ISS and the SpaceX Starlink satellites among others — atmospheric drag plays a major role. Dead satellites and debris usually slow and burn up in the atmosphere in just a few years. This natural cleansing process accelerates when the sun becomes more active and solar coronal mass ejections strike Earth and cause the atmosphere to swell.

    “In those altitudes, we can probably do a lot and we will be forgiven,” Linares says.

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  • [–] 10 points 9 months ago (15 children)
  • [–] 13 points 9 months ago (9 children)

    anyone else who wants to tell me “for the millionth time” about how it’s super safe to fill low-earth orbit with unprecedented amounts of literal garbage in pursuit of creating a shit-tier ISP that’s sucked hard every time I’ve used it is welcome to take it up with the professor of astronomy that wrote that last article

    “it’s not Kessler syndrome unless it’s from the Kessler region of space, otherwise it’s just sparkling Rods from God” fuck you

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    these fucks: "Don't make me tap the sign!!!"

    the sign: "My final braincell fell out of my open mouth while drooling"

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  • [–] 6 points 9 months ago (5 children)

    Wait, does the Starlink internet suck as well? I mean, it has to have high latency, that much I've assumed, but other than that?

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  • [–] 9 points 9 months ago

    @V0ldek @techtakes If you want high latency, nothing beats telnet from the UK to a server in California via a comsat in GEO back in the early 90s when the trans-Atlantic cable circuit was down. A three-phase TCP exchange has to crawl up to GEO, 35,000km above the equator, and back down three times, never mind the surface level routing.Gave me a strong appreciation for Berkeley vi's designed-in ability to cope with slow modems.

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  • [–] 9 points 9 months ago

    If I understand correctly, the only reason they're in such low orbit, and thus why there needs to be so fucking many of them, is to have much lower latency compared to geostationary satellites. You know, in case you need to play Quake on your satellite connection.

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  • [–] 8 points 9 months ago

    every time I've used it, it had massive issues with the connection hitching and with delivering anywhere near the promised amount of bandwidth

    my experience is my own, etc etc, but it reminded me a lot of how every time I've been in a self-driving tesla the only person impressed (and not terrified) of the thing was the owner

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago

    We use starlink at work for communicating with some remote customer sites, and it’s been entirely adequate. As a super-subjective latency benchmark, i didn’t notice any particular difference in interactive ssh sessions to the starlink sites, and to the 4g lte sites in the same country. It’s been easier to set up and more reliable that some of the 4g links.

    I don’t like the fact that we’e paying elon money, but in the absence of a non-evil, non-ecologically disastrous, reasonably priced alternative, I don’t really have anything to offer management as a replacement. Everything else is either much worse, or more expensive and still worse, or vastly more expensive.

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  • [–] -4 points 9 months ago (4 children)

    I hate Elon as much as anyone and think that SpaceX is bound for failure....but that article isn't about a star link satellite. It was a cargo trunk from a SpaceX rocket which prob fell off much lower in orbit.

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  • [–] 8 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    "ah, but you see, THIS piece of space garbage came from a totally unrelated space-garbage-launching mission"

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  • [–] -4 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    No, SpaceX is still responsible for dropping trash that could harm people or property. There's just a difference between dropping something from orbit and from lower in the atmosphere.

    The original argument was about worries over Kessler syndrome and then they moved the goal post to space junk not burning up completely, utilizing an article about space junk that wasn't ever in orbit.

    I don't give a shit about SpaceX, Elon and all his companies are complete trash. That doesn't detract from the original argument that existing satalites in low earth orbit aren't something to loose sleep about.

    You could make the argument that putting more junk into space has negative and unnecessary outcomes, but that's a completely different argument that I would agree with.

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  • [–] 10 points 9 months ago

    The original argument was about worries over Kessler syndrome and then they moved the goal post to space junk not burning up completely, utilizing an article about space junk that wasn’t ever in orbit.

    no, the "original argument" (jacking off motions) was prompted by this shitpost of yours:

    I mean, what’s the worst that could happen?

    nobody moved the fucking goal posts, normal people don't go online to engage in a spot of spacex defense while pretending to hate first-name basis "Elon". that you have a rehearsed set of fucking gotchas over the specific danger presented by spacex is fucking incredible.

    You could make the argument that putting more junk into space has negative and unnecessary outcomes, but that’s a completely different argument that I would agree with.

    but instead you decided to tediously split hairs over Kessler Syndrome as if anyone here other than the resident physicists give a shit. you don't get it. nobody is here to win points. we're not an IRB; nobody gives a shit what specific category of danger is represented by the space junk Musk's generating. we give a shit that there's danger at all.

    fuck me there's nothing more depressing than a spacex fan who swears they hate musk and goes to bat for the fucker's worst, most damaging excesses

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    [–] 20 points 9 months ago (6 children)

    Has anyone done the math on if Elon can keep these plates spinning until he dies of old age or if it will implode sooner than that? I wouldn't think he can keep this up another decade, but I wouldn't have predicted Tesla limping along as long as it has even as Elon squeezes more money out of it, so idk. It would be really satisfying to watch Elon's empire implode, but probably he holds onto millions even if he loses billions because consequences aren't for the ultra rich in America.

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  • [–] 4 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    until he dies of old age

    Why so pessimistic, maybe we'll get lucky instead. The Ketamine could get to him.

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago

    I would dare to hope, but seeing how long Trump has been able to chug along despite his diet (and presumably drug habit, like that one debate where he was constantly sniffing) I wouldn't count on it.

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  • [–] 15 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Is this the AI that makes child porn on demand? Wouldn't shifting liability for that in to your space toy company be bad?

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  • [–] 16 points 9 months ago

    It also owns Twitter because Musk spent $33 billion in AI investment cash to buy Twitter from himself to pay off his debt.

    Now he is using space investment money to pay off the AI investors.

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  • [–] 14 points 9 months ago

    Awesome, turn it all into one giant morass of shit. Maybe it'll all go bankrupt faster.

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  • [–] 13 points 9 months ago

    Space x needs to be confiscated and rolled into nasa and or space force. I’m sick of pretending that these investors are anything other than parasites

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  • [–] 8 points 9 months ago

    Someone is seeing the bubble popping...

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  • [–] 8 points 9 months ago

    Merge both into the fucking ground.

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  • [–] 8 points 9 months ago

    So.

    How much of this is folding all the meme stocks into the one thing that actually produces a product that people all over the world demonstrably want to pay for over the competition to keep their stupid plates spinning?

    And how much is religious psychosis, advancing along the singulatarian eschatology from AI to dyson sphere to rebuilding the universe in His Image?

    I can't tell.

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  • [–] 17 points 9 months ago (9 children)

    SpaceX is actually really fucking successful, why would be destroy it by tainting it with shitty AI? Oh right, because he's a moron who does way too much ketamine.

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  • [–] 9 points 9 months ago* (8 children)

    I'm assuming you mean operationally but not financially? They wouldn't have to raise capital so much if it were financially so...

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  • [–] -5 points 9 months ago (7 children)

    I'm using the success rate of the Falcon 9 rocket and how many launches they do as my metrics. If they're not doing well financially then they're making some questionable financial decisions.

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago*

    Remember there’s the bit of spacex that runs a successful commercial rocketry program, but also the bit of spacex that keeps blowing up stupid giant rockets.

    All of musk’s companies have to support one of his idiotic pet projects… tesla got the cybertruck, x got grok, spacex got starship. None of them can be stopped, because they’re his and he’s personally invested in them. His flunkeys can only make questionable financial decisions around those projects, because he will fire them if they don’t.

    Tesla is struggling and is trying to sidestep into humanoid robotics (a different kind of stupid idea), x was always a money sink, and now elon is concerned that his ai waifu might die without an injection of sweet government cash. It isn’t clear he’s capable of giving a shit about the consequences of any of this.

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  • [–] 3 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    I mean Starship is a VERY questionable financial decision the way they are running it. The falcon program is another matter. It's actually remarkable how the two of them are almost diametrically opposed in how they are run.

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  • [–] 4 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    @BioMan Falcon 9 launches are reportedly sold for $60-80M (or $160-200M for Falcon Heavy). But an F9 launch in Starlink configuration is billed internally at just $12M, for the same payload as a Saturn 1B. Which is just insane (S1B cost $55M per flight in 1972, or $425M today).

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  • [–] 4 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

    I mean I dunno if any internal numbers are meaningful at all as anything but accounting fictions. But the cost of the falcon 9 to external customers is believable, even if they are potentially subsidized by funding rounds, and impressive. Near as I can tell it comes from accepting trade-offs: they accept low specific impulse and thus declining performance at high velocity for cheap engines, they accept an overpowered oversized upper stage to have only one engine assembly line and to shift some of the burden to the upper stage that optimally would be on the first without reuse, they accept that entering at 2 km/s is way easier than entering at 8 km/s and don't try to recover the second stage, they accept the steep payload penalty of recovering the first stage. Starship on the other hand tries to brute-force through every trade-off - meaning theyre trying to push their engines through all sanity, the second stage is heavy and bulky and comically oversized, and theyre trying to have a big empty fuel tank be a heat shield which not even the shuttle ever tried.

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