xkcd #3107: Weather Balloons

Title text:

Once you add the balloons into the model, it makes forecasting easier overall--the forecast is always 'cold and dark, with minimal solar-driven convection.'

Transcript:

[A graph is shown. The X axis is labeled Number of Weather Balloon Launches Per Day. It's logarithmic, with ticks in powers of 10, and values shown at 1, 10, 100, 1,000, 1 million, 1 billion, and 1 trillion. The Y axis is labeled Weather Model Accuracy, no values are shown. The plot starts above the mark for 1 balloon, at about 40% of the maximum value of the curve, it quickly rises through a point labelled "Current Rate", at about 4000 launches per day and 85% of the maximum. The maximum value is reached at 100 million, plateaus until 10 billion, and then reduces even more rapidly down to perhaps 15% maximum accuracy above the 10 trillion mark.]

Source: https://xkcd.com/3107/

explainxkcd for #3107

Once you add the balloons into the model, it makes forecasting easier overall--the forecast is always 'cold and dark, with minimal solar-driven convection.'

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[–] 21 points 1 year ago

Seems like a climate change proposal to me 👍

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  • [–] 13 points 1 year ago (8 children)

    I'm going to need someone to adjust the model for instances in which an F-22 starts shooting them down.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    All the fighter jets in the world couldn't make a tiny dent in one trillion balloons.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)
  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    It looks like the dart took out about a half dozen lights and a dozen people in about two seconds, so let's say 10 strikes per second. At that rate it would take 10^11 seconds to pop a trillion balloons. That's more than 3000 years!

    Of course I did say "make a tiny dent," but even to eliminate 0.1% of the balloons would take the dart 3 years. One trillion is a number that we use a lot, for example talking about the US national debt, but it is not an ordinary number that lends itself to intuitive understanding. Even a billion is hard to grasp intuitively.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    We launch over a thousand weather balloons per day?

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    My first thought was “who’s launching all these leather balloons?”.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    There really is an xkcd for everything.

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