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Cory Doctorow: The real (economic) AI apocalypse is nigh (pluralistic.net)
submitted 1 year ago by to c/techtakes@awful.systems
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[–] 23 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

Im so tempted to short one of these companies, but with my luck it'd be the one that Trump decides to save for a buddy, and I end up poorer anyway.

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  • [–] 31 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Shorting the market requires precise timing. Being early is just as bad as being wrong.

    "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

    I wish we could all short it and end out on top but the market is so manipulated we'd need to be insiders to time it properly. Good luck if you still do it, but be careful put there

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    Shorting the market requires precise timing. Being early is just as bad as being wrong.

    Exactly. It is not enough to know that a company stock will go down. It is necessary to know that it will never go higher than a certain point above the current value (not even momentarily) before it goes down. If you have a fuckload of other people's money you can just keep double-or-nothing-ing it, that's what banks were doing to gamestop, except that this can sometimes cause the stock to go even higher (a short squeeze), which would make you (who doesn't actually have a fuckload of other people's money) lose all of your money.

    edit: also the other concerning possibility is that stock prices can go up simply due to the dollar going down.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago*

    A very simple strategy is buying less US assets and more international assets than you would hold if the US stock market was not weighted so heavily towards Friend Computer. If 60% of my stocks were in the US in 2015, I might hold 30% today (this is not financial advice).

    Contra Doctorow there are lots of strategies someone can chose if they think the US stock market is likely to collapse in the next three years. Eg. there are people in the USA who bought some chickens and seeds last winter, or who started new jobs or new education outside the USA. Deciding to act is the hardest.

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    [–] 15 points 1 year ago

    This is so important. I’m like the dude in the college though. “What can we do about it?” Knowing the AI bubble will collapse doesn’t help you to navigate it.

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    [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    Oh no how unfortunate.

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