WASHINGTON — The day after Democrats swept every statewide office in Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz went on his podcast and laid down a promise.

“I give you my word: Texas will be red again,” he said.

The chair of the Democratic National Committee had a different read. Asked whether he considers Texas a battleground state in the next presidential contest, Ken Martin said in an interview, “For sure — it’s seismic.”

Just two years after President Donald Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 percentage points, Democrat Gina Hinojosa ousted Gov. Greg Abbott while James Talarico won the state’s U.S. Senate race by 12 points, showing how quickly the ground can shift here. The 2028 presidential election will be the first and most consequential test of whether that was an outlier or the beginning of a more permanent change.

At stake is a remaking of the presidential map. With 40 electoral votes, Texas is the second-biggest prize in the Electoral College and the anchor for every Republican presidential candidate since 1980. Without Texas, the path to 270 Electoral College votes is near impossible for Republicans — and after the 2030 Census, the state is poised to gain even more electors.

For decades, neither party’s presidential nominees have had to fight for it. Democrats, who last won a presidential race in Texas with Jimmy Carter, have treated the state as little more than a fundraising pit stop. In their absence, Republican candidates have won the state relatively easily and rarely showed up either.

Now the results of last week’s wave are a political Rorschach test, where prospective candidates and party figures alike see an opportunity.

Karl Rove, the architect of decades’ worth of Republican victories in Texas and George W. Bush’s chief political strategist, said Texas’ competitiveness in 2028 will turn on a few key factors that will come into focus in the coming years.

“The question is going to be, does the Republican Party get its act together by 2028?” Rove said. “And the other question is going to be, is the Democratic Party going to govern from the center, or are they going to be a bunch of Austin liberals? And then the third question is going to be, who do the respective parties nominate in 2028?”