Climate change will ass fuck the world long before 2100
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It doesn't look like the article as a whole is downloadable without an account, but from what is accessible:
The Commission identifies two threats as having extinction-potential:
- The malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI)
- Nuclear conflict
I think that it's reasonably likely that by 2100, we will have at least two other potential candidates (if we aren't there already):
- Engineered, self-replicating biological organisms that create pandemics or other situations problematic to human life (e.g. if we produced something like the Great Oxidation Event on a short timeframe). We are increasingly able to craft and modify life, and I would expect that we will explore all sorts of possibilities.
- Self-replicating nanomachines that do similar; something like the gray goo scenario.
In all cases other than nuclear conflict, I think that rapid replication that spirals out of control is the common factor that could render a risk existential.
I also do not think that the most-likely existential risk from AI comes from intentional, malicious use—the article is specifically identifying malicious use—but from an error coupled with a system that can expand massively and spin out of control. Something more like the paperclip maximizer scenario.
Any chance we could move that timeline up a bit? I'm free next Tuesday to be instantly immolated by a Nuke.
What's even the point in anything anymore
Literally any media since the invention of science fiction aritifical intelligence has said the same.
The thing that keeps humanity from destroying everything is that fact that we feel pain. Both emotional and physical pain.
Artificial intelligence will not evovle with that same function therefore it will not prevent itself from causing harm to humanity.
I don't believe LLMs are artificial intelligence, they are simply just "if this, then that."
True artificial intelligence will be able to have new ideas on its own. That will be a bad future for human beings.
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