There Is No Cloud, Just Somebody Else's Broken & Bullshitting Weather Model.

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[–] 46 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 child)

Okay, a lot to unpack here. I work on atmospheric model development. Primarily upper atmosphere models, but have experience with forecasting models as well. Inherently, there is nothing wrong with moving to the cloud for hpc resources. However I do take an issue with the following statement:

“Cloud-based high-performance computing will accelerate the transition of research into operations by eliminating traditional bottlenecks of on-premise systems,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs in a statement.

The bottleneck in forecasting is NOT hardware but unknown and unresolved physical processes. Even at high resolution, forecasting models cannot capture physics and dynamics at spatial scales smaller than the grid of the model. We can make assumptions and use things like machine learning to improve subgrid processes but we cannot fully resolve them without an infinitely small grid, which is impossible. So moving to the cloud will not improve forecasting or the transition of RTO.

The second issue with this guy is he is a Trump nut hugger. See the following:

Sharpiegate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Jacobs

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago

    I completely agree with everything you've said, but I think Neil meant that on-premise systems have bottlenecks that cloud resources do not. Specifically, on-premises systems have a hard upper limit on available compute resources, whereas in the cloud you can just purchase more compute resources as you need them.

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  • [–] 36 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    How in the world does a remote computer provide faster results than the one sitting in your building?

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  • [–] [S] 34 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Ok hey we control the government now and we fired all your staff who run the computers and now you have to use our services!

    Also, your boss loves us and HATES you, like seriously wow we could so easily tip this thing over if we started making a stink about the climate scientists being difficult...

    Pats the dead corpse of NOAA on the back in a way that is meant to intimidate it.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    The remote one is faster.

    The time to display the result is far lower than the time to calculate it.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago

    "Under the contract, NOAA can also avail itself of Google’s DeepMind set of AI tools to help build out its first AI-driven weather forecasting system, the AI Global Forecast System, which promises to offer accurate weather forecasts using 99.7% fewer computer cycles and take minutes, rather than hours, to produce a forecast."

    If there's one thing I know about large tech companies and promises, they always keep them. Thankfully the U.S. doesn't have a bunch of sociopaths running the government who don't want to acknowledge climate change because oil and coal industries are giving them bribes. This will only end well.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    Now americans can be served climate crisis denial with matching weather forecasts.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    At least I won't know about the typhoon when it comes for me, saving me so much stress! Thank you President Trump!

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