NBC News’ Decision Desk has characterized the Alaska Senate race as likely Democratic. GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan currently trails Peltola, with both under the 50% mark.

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, as vote-counting continues in the state.

Peltola has expanded her narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes reported this week. A “likely” characterization indicates that the NBC News Decision Desk has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win the race.

If Peltola wins, Democrats will have a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.

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[–] 23 points 22 hours ago*
  • There's no reason for the Big Sullivan to concede; it would be a beyond-stupid move when no decision desks have called it.
  • Conceding doesn't mean the poll workers stop counting votes. There still needs to be an official total. And even if it goes to ranked-choice on the 18th, that's all computerized.

I think people get this deeply mistaken idea that decision desk calls, concessions, etc. somehow freeze the count and codify the result, but they don't. At best, a candidate conceding is a tacit promise that they won't contest the results by e.g. seeking a recount.

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