Thanks for such a detailed response. I suppose asking you to essentially predict the future of this particular industry was a bit ambitious.
My immediate gut instinct is that we SHOULD still be teaching kids coding
As is mine, which for me I think, even if I take it as read that LLMs are the future of programming, comes from the same place that makes me think in spite of Python, programming courses should start with C. But it's become pretty obvious to me that a lot of people don't have that desire to "go under the hood", and still seem to manage, so part of me thinks maybe the same will become true of LLM users.
these days I’m thinking we’re still at the beginning of an exponential curve
a lot of people are just assuming it’ll all blow over once the bubble pops, but like all the other bubbles, it’s formed because there is a very real technological leap happening, and it’s not going away
I'm one of the people you called out who "hasn't used a paid frontier AI model to write code" (though I didn't downvote), so I have to take your word for it re the rate of change, but it does seem a little contradictory to me to believe we're on an exponential slope but also in a bubble. I guess the former is from a technological perspective and the latter financial?
Have a look at the number of Linux CVEs found this year compared to previous years - it’s humbling.
That's one of the things that has pushed me away from the intensely skeptical end of the spectrum. But I don't really see how this can fail to flatten out eventually. While secure software is possible at all (by which I suppose I mean cryptography, hardware, and airgaps still work as advertised), I think if anything AI will simply accelerate us towards an equilibrium, where the supply of vulnerabilities that can be found by LLM-guided brute force search is patched and exhausted.
I fear the world is in for a rough decade from all this ... and anything we can do to prepare our kids to roll with the punches in that future would be wise.
Pretty bleak. But I definitely agree.