It might be a mix of ability to monitor direct threats and knowledge of a specific threat. If you know a specific person spent a lot of time coordinating going to show up at your house to try and beat you up tonight, maybe you stay elsewhere. They're unlikely to be able to pivot on such short notice and at least you are safe for another day. Also, if you go stay with a friend that has a better security system and lives in a gated community, you might feel better about the whole thing in general. If they think US or German bases or wherever are a little easier to defend then it makes sense to move there.

Obviously I don't know any specifics, but those would be among my top 5 guesses.