This will create a shortage of experienced people who can actually solve real architectural problems and review code accurately.

This is also my current "most likely" scenario. Bob Martin (of Clean Code fame) doesn't read or write code any longer. But he has the luxury of drawing on decades of coding and architecture experience to direct LLMs to do the right thing.

There has been an increase in the number of open positions for senior devs, and a decrease in the number of open positions for junior devs. Median senior salary is $240k. These both indicate value to coding and architectural knowledge.

As seniors retire and quit (a lot of them don't really care for the AI job), we're going to end up with a skills gap.

I teach a couple SE courses at our university and I'm revamping them as we speak to aim higher toward that senior dev level. But it's not easy to replicate 3-5 years of on-the-job experience in 2 quarters.

In China, the gap is being made up for by employers (kinda like it's historically been). I know one thing for sure about the US, though: we'll make corrections when our backs are against the wall and not a moment before. :)