This isn't about collapse in US politics, this is about us all being on the precipice of a much more general, brutal and longlasting global war.

Large global wars breakout, they are not carefully managed fires or designed plans, they are bonfires that grow so big the heat reaches everywhere inside the area that can burn...

Also, Trump does not always coward/chicken out, or rather he always cowards out/chickens out from avoiding destructive escalation by swallowing his ego...which is actually really dangerous for everybody.

The threat of nuclear weapons use here is not abstract, there is no evidence we should act like it is no matter what Trump/Vance says.

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[–] [S] 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (3 children)

Nukes are off the table

NO they are not

  • If Israel/US nukes Iran and nobody else acts China will punish Israel/US

  • If russia nukes Ukraine and nobody else reacts China will punish russia

  • HOWEVER if Israel/US nuke Iran while russia near simultaneously nukes Ukraine than China may push for ending hostilities after a cycle of "tit for tat" has happened that no one wants to continue and effectively neither empire will be punished but rather empowered and reaffirmed in their strength.

I am not saying it is highly likely, but if you don't see the danger here I don't know what to tell you. Nuclear escalation is horrific and it disgusts me we are walking so closely to cliff edges.

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  • [–] -1 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    China would punish both, since neither country could ever be trusted economically ever again, and China would like to continue trading with the rest of the world which would be objectively impossible. Nuclear first strikes are war crimes, and ones that pretty much mean instant global sanctions.

    Now would be the time to test that, given the EU switching over to their own payment processor and China giving the other 2/3rds of the world a payment processor that's not Visa/Mastercard.

    Everything is set up in such a way that both Russia and the US can be effectively removed from global society with the only danger being them nuking a nuclear power; which even the most insane sycophants wouldn't do, since that ends the world. If Israel/US nukes Iran, the US will never trade again with any country or entity, the USD collapses literally instantly as the US has no assets backing up its fiat currency BESIDES their economic and military stability, and a whole lot of US military members will mutiny if not actively revolt.

    The same is true of Russia, but to a lesser extent since they've effectively been in isolationist manufacturing mode since 1991 so they're far less reliant on global trade, still a lot of Russian billionaires would revolt.

    Every single key to power in both countries is against nuclear escalations, since that ends their power globally. Rubles and USD would be worthless, their assets would be worthless, their foreign assets would be seized, and that's if they survive popular riots/revolutions long enough to flee.

    There is no threat to justify nuclear force, for either country. There is no possible way to get a plurality, much less a majority, of people to defend the actions. And again it would make all the people involved poor.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    You need to understand that trying to ascribe a rational mindset to orangeboi is an exercise in willful ignorance, which is a big part of why the sanewashing the mainstream media engages in with orangeboi in particular and the regime in general drives me to the brink of insanity

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    The problem with that is Trump isn't the end of all decisions. Even in the quasi-fascist regime he has built. He has no big red button that says 'nuke iran.' He has a guy with briefcase that generates codes. He then calls and orders a person, using that code, to nuke iran. Who has to relay that order (and whatever secret steps involved) to someone else, who has to nuke Iran. And that's the easy one, assuming they use an ICBM. If they go ship based or aircraft-based nuke there are DOZENS of people required to all agree, without reservation, to nuke Iran. That that's clearly the best option. That that is a legal order they are willing to bet the rest of their life and career on. Because if they carry out an illegal order, they are personally liable.

    Nuking Iran, under all current laws, is illegal. Even if the president directly orders it. Any and all military personnel involved, at least 6, up to DOZENS, would all have to actively follow an illegal order, betting that by following the order TRUMP ET AL WILL NEVER LOSE POWER FOR THE REST OF TIME.

    Do you know the type of person that gets to the point of commanding a nuclear submarine? A flight deck commander that relays the order? The general that directs the silo?

    They don't answer to presidents. They don't answer to the secretary of defense. They managed to avoid all legal pitfalls while building a career that sets them and their spouse up for life, and they generally tend to only be loyal to the constitution; because they would have been filtered long ago if they were loyal to a party or person.

    It takes just one person refusing an illegal order to stop the nuke. Just one. The US military was explicitly designed that way, and its why the government spends so much money using propaganda on our own troops.

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