Ahh I see what you're trying to say now. It wasn't clear.

"What if Acosta had joined a team other than KTM for his move to MotoGP"

For that to have happened his entire career would have had to be very different - he rode for KTM Ajo in Moto3 and Moto2, so it was a fairly natural progression into the KTM team for MotoGP, I believe (but can't find at a quick search) that he was actually contracted to KTM Motogp as part of his second year contract with KTM Ajo before he moved (could be wrong on that though).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajo_Motorsport

Sure if he'd swapped to a Ducati for 2024 he'd probably have had sooner wins, but he'd spent his entire career up to that point with KTM - it would be an odd choice to make. Particularly as the 2023 KTM was doing decently - Binder, Miller (and Pedrosa) were fairly consistently in the top 8 and they looked like they were heading in the right direction (no one knew about their financial issues at that stage)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Bull_KTM_Factory_Racing