the Polish government, and the people largely too, seem genuinely convinced the US will help in case of a Russian attack.

The best it can count on is EU support, assuming any attack occurs before the next anti-EU government is in office.

We've seen a number of Russian rockets land on Polish soil. We've seen flyovers. We've seen sabotage and other espionage.

Poland gets a Gulf of Tonkin once a week. Shy of a T-90 showing up in Rzeszów, I'm not sure what else they're waiting for.