We can all read the numbers, we just don't buy it. There is literally no amount of polling that will convince me his base is abandoning him. He could rape their children in front of them and they'll still vote for him.
The problem is this type of message is gonna be used to justify going after his base. Appealing to them. Usually with rascist and homophobic rhetoric. Liberals will gleefully rip away trans rights if we let them think it'll work.