It's not overconfidence to know that I don't listen to ads. Even if they are playing near me, I drown it out with my own hatred for them. If I don't hear or see them, how do they affect me, precisely?
These posts are always about GENERALITIES in human behavior. Not the extreme ends or random differences. And yet there are always hordes of people claiming that EVERY SINGLE HUMAN ALIVE reacts the same to advertising.
What overconfidence you have in your own knowledge of the human mind that you can tell me about my own.