you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] 8 points 4 months ago (3 children)

Hard disagree. Right now I give 1 less than about a 5% chance. Iran have repeatedly demonstrated that they fully believe they have the US by the balls (they're right). And Iran stakes a lot of their regional power on their control over groups like Hezbollah. Abandoning one of them would be a huge blow. They're not going to resort to that unless they get desperate, and currently they're as far from desperate as they could possibly be. They have no reason to back down on this and plenty to lose by doing so. The only way that math changes is if Trump pulls out some crazy left field move to radically reshape the power balance. I don't think he's capable of that.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    So what do you think will happen? The strait is closed permanently?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 4 months ago

    It's between the other two options. Either Trump commits to a full invasion, or he commits to a fight with AIPAC.

    I'm about a 40/60 split between those right now. Theoretically Israel are backing down given their agreement to a ceasefire with Hezbollah today, but a) that doesn't mean they won't come for blood in the midterms, and b) there's a good chance they're playing nice until they can create some kind of false flag attack from Hezbollah as a pretext to resume hostilities and shit-can the deal.

  • source
  • parent
  • [+] 1 point 4 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] -1 points 4 months ago

    This would take many years. I don't think Trump or Lebanon can wait that long, he seams pretty desperate. We already know he's unable to pressure Israel so his only option is to pressure Iran by doing something stupid. I really home Iran will take the huge win they already got and pass on Lebanon for now. The other options are pretty terrible for everyone.

  • source
  • parent
  • load more comments (-1 replies)