Yeah, it objectively has to be far, far less. Tax payers directly funding health providers would destroy a great amount of the demand for such a massive private health insurance industry, which is why we pay so much in the first place.

Some estimates by the OBM actually saved taxpayers money.

You are correct, even the absolute highest estimates for universal healthcare are still notably lower than what we pay now. The real number would be drastically lower though.

That would be an expected consequence.

We have a dizzying maze of providers, insurance, and regulations that produce a horrible bureaucracy that puts any tangled mess the government comes up to shame, inefficiencies everywhere.

Universal healthcare is just such a simpler system that it's hard to make it worse than what's going on right now.