A lot of shitting on the possibility here. People have a right to be skeptical, but it's also hard to overstate how many moderate Republicans Ken Paxton has already alienated in Texas. Paxton has impeached by the Republican-led Texas House for his criminal activity. There are large swathes of suburban voters who may typically vote Republican but who would skip right over Paxton on that ballot.

At the same time, Talarico's ability to speak confidently and comfortably about religion and in churches is giving him a huge leg-up in making inroads with those same disaffected suburbanites.

The calculus is not the same as it was with Cruz vs O'Rourke in 2018. Talarico's prospects today are solidly better than O'Rourke's were at any point during his campaign.