Musk's deadlines always have been pure fantasy. But i'm seeing real life hands on reviews of autonomous driving in various places, even Amsterdam with a mayhem of canals and cyclists, it's not entirely there but damn impressive.

The rollout of the cars themselves will be a non issue, they control the factories to pump out the vehicles as they need it, unlike waymo's retrofit way of doing things.

I can't predict the future, had a company car tesla model 3 from 2019 with "full potential for self driving" and after 4 years when the leasing contract ran out, it was still barely on the level of a teenager on their 5th driving lesson. They might very well never reach the point where it's good enough for the real world and stay on really predictable paths.