arrow74 comments on Iran destroys five US refueling aircraft.

[–] arrow74@lemmy.zip 1 point 7 months ago (3 children)

Unfortunately all it would take is a fast deployment tactic dedicating everything the US has. It comes down to raw numbers of immediately available manpower, aircraft, and munitions. The US has a stupid amount of these things at the ready.

It would be bloody and brutal and not certain, but I'd say the US would have a decent chance of overrunning the country.

Now this will only topple the government, then you get into a whole Afghanistan situation again. So I suppose it depends on what the definition of victory is. Could the US defeat Iran and occupy it? I think it's likely, but the second they leave a new government that hates the US (rightfully) forms. Could they occupy indefinitely? Probably at a steep cost.

So I see a path for the US to overwhelm the Iranian military, but no real way for them to ever establish control of the region. I wouldn't call that a win for the US for sure

permalink

fedilink

source

parent

hideshow 3 child comments

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 7 months ago (2 children)

The US is not configured to deploy everything it has in one theatre. This is not a realistic scenario. You've clearly have never dealt with real world logistics in your life, if you think that's even remotely possible. And even if this fantastical feat of creating supply chains to the region for sustained war was possible, there's very little chance of the US overrunning anything. You only have to look at a map to realize that Iran is a very mountainous country that would be a nightmare to fight in.

Finally, the US army is configured for legacy 20th century warfare. NATO as a whole is entirely unprepared for what modern war looks like. This is part of the reason the US is already getting its ass kicked by Iran, not being able to establish air dominance which is the core part of NATO fighting doctrine.

here's how NATO fared in recent exercises with Ukrainian veterans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAg4qBaFvjI

and here's how well US army is prepared to deal with drones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETeA07YjnSM

permalink

fedilink

source

parent

hideshow 2 child comments

[–] arrow74@lemmy.zip -2 points 7 months ago* (1 child)

You've clearly have never dealt with real world logistics in your life

Starting with the snark? Sure I tried to make my comment respectfully but whatever.

You're not wrong, but the US could certainly throw a lot more into it. Then it, as I said, will come down to drones. That's a function of time and deployment speed before the bombs hit. Currently I think the US has the raw numbers of munitions to overwhelm the country, but day by day that changes.

Plus it's not like any of us has the up to date figures from each country. I personally thinkk dismissing either possible outcome is just really stupid. I've tried not to make it sound like my speculation was fact, but what I believe was the most likely outcome.

You only have to look at a map to realize that Iran is a very mountainous country that would be a nightmare to fight in.

Yes I'm well aware. This why I specifically said they could overwhelm the government. I do believe just due to raw numbers of munitions and equipment that the US currently could take out the centralized government (think more bombs and less boots), but as I said control would be a long bloody occupation that would never succeed. Just like Afghanistan just way more bloody.

I think you're also dismissing US logistical capabilities in that part of the world. They spent 20 years setting up client states, Israel will give them all the access they need, and the majority of Europe is complicit allowing American bases to continue to operate within their borders.

But then again who really knows. I can't outright dismiss your claim, and it would.be silly to do so. I think it's more likely that the US could do it, but I can't garuntee it. As I said each day the US doesn't commit to a large scale invasion it increases Iran's odds tremendously. Iran does need to build up enough drones. I don't believe they have enough yet. They're definetly working on it.

I don't disagree with you in drones tech either. I think it just comes down to numbers and continued capabilities to launch the drones.

permalink

fedilink

source

parent

hideshow 1 child comment

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 7 months ago

Buddy, Russia has been bombing Ukraine for four years now, and it's still there. And Iran is three times the size of Ukraine, with lots of mountains under which all the critical military infrastructure is.

We might not have up to date figures on each country, but we do know that the US has been massively drained in Ukraine for the past 4 years. We know that US industrial production is laughable. And we know that the US is spread thin around the world with over 800 military bases to maintain. Meanwhile, Iran has been preparing for this specific war for literally decades, and they're fighting on their home turf.

And the US can't specifically overwhelm the government because Iranians aren't idiots, and they have considered this exact possibility. This is why they have the whole mosaic defense strategy where each region acts autonomously, and has its own logistics. There is no central government you could take out to stop the army from acting.

I'm being very realistic about the US logistics capability here. The US is literally abandoning bases and infrastructure that took decades to build in these client states. All the early warning systems and radars are gone at this point, and Iraqi and Iranian drones are flying freely through the empty US bases now. Iran has already pushed US logistics further away from their border.

Nothing that we've seen so far suggests that the US has any chance of prevailing over Iran. Also not sure what you're basing the claim that Iran does not have enough drones on. They've been producing them since the war in Ukraine started.

permalink

fedilink

source

parent