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Iran destroys five US refueling aircraft. (www.vietnam.vn)
submitted 7 months ago by to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml
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[–] [S] 13 points 7 months ago (18 children)

That's frankly delusional. Iran is a country of 90 million people. The US does not have the resources to, as you say, roll them. In fact, it's pretty clear that US army isn't even prepared for the realities of modern warfare like drones.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (3 children)

    Unfortunately all it would take is a fast deployment tactic dedicating everything the US has. It comes down to raw numbers of immediately available manpower, aircraft, and munitions. The US has a stupid amount of these things at the ready.

    It would be bloody and brutal and not certain, but I'd say the US would have a decent chance of overrunning the country.

    Now this will only topple the government, then you get into a whole Afghanistan situation again. So I suppose it depends on what the definition of victory is. Could the US defeat Iran and occupy it? I think it's likely, but the second they leave a new government that hates the US (rightfully) forms. Could they occupy indefinitely? Probably at a steep cost.

    So I see a path for the US to overwhelm the Iranian military, but no real way for them to ever establish control of the region. I wouldn't call that a win for the US for sure

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    The US is not configured to deploy everything it has in one theatre. This is not a realistic scenario. You've clearly have never dealt with real world logistics in your life, if you think that's even remotely possible. And even if this fantastical feat of creating supply chains to the region for sustained war was possible, there's very little chance of the US overrunning anything. You only have to look at a map to realize that Iran is a very mountainous country that would be a nightmare to fight in.

    Finally, the US army is configured for legacy 20th century warfare. NATO as a whole is entirely unprepared for what modern war looks like. This is part of the reason the US is already getting its ass kicked by Iran, not being able to establish air dominance which is the core part of NATO fighting doctrine.

    here's how NATO fared in recent exercises with Ukrainian veterans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAg4qBaFvjI

    and here's how well US army is prepared to deal with drones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETeA07YjnSM

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  • [–] -2 points 7 months ago* (1 child)

    You've clearly have never dealt with real world logistics in your life

    Starting with the snark? Sure I tried to make my comment respectfully but whatever.

    You're not wrong, but the US could certainly throw a lot more into it. Then it, as I said, will come down to drones. That's a function of time and deployment speed before the bombs hit. Currently I think the US has the raw numbers of munitions to overwhelm the country, but day by day that changes.

    Plus it's not like any of us has the up to date figures from each country. I personally thinkk dismissing either possible outcome is just really stupid. I've tried not to make it sound like my speculation was fact, but what I believe was the most likely outcome.

    You only have to look at a map to realize that Iran is a very mountainous country that would be a nightmare to fight in.

    Yes I'm well aware. This why I specifically said they could overwhelm the government. I do believe just due to raw numbers of munitions and equipment that the US currently could take out the centralized government (think more bombs and less boots), but as I said control would be a long bloody occupation that would never succeed. Just like Afghanistan just way more bloody.

    I think you're also dismissing US logistical capabilities in that part of the world. They spent 20 years setting up client states, Israel will give them all the access they need, and the majority of Europe is complicit allowing American bases to continue to operate within their borders.

    But then again who really knows. I can't outright dismiss your claim, and it would.be silly to do so. I think it's more likely that the US could do it, but I can't garuntee it. As I said each day the US doesn't commit to a large scale invasion it increases Iran's odds tremendously. Iran does need to build up enough drones. I don't believe they have enough yet. They're definetly working on it.

    I don't disagree with you in drones tech either. I think it just comes down to numbers and continued capabilities to launch the drones.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 7 months ago

    Buddy, Russia has been bombing Ukraine for four years now, and it's still there. And Iran is three times the size of Ukraine, with lots of mountains under which all the critical military infrastructure is.

    We might not have up to date figures on each country, but we do know that the US has been massively drained in Ukraine for the past 4 years. We know that US industrial production is laughable. And we know that the US is spread thin around the world with over 800 military bases to maintain. Meanwhile, Iran has been preparing for this specific war for literally decades, and they're fighting on their home turf.

    And the US can't specifically overwhelm the government because Iranians aren't idiots, and they have considered this exact possibility. This is why they have the whole mosaic defense strategy where each region acts autonomously, and has its own logistics. There is no central government you could take out to stop the army from acting.

    I'm being very realistic about the US logistics capability here. The US is literally abandoning bases and infrastructure that took decades to build in these client states. All the early warning systems and radars are gone at this point, and Iraqi and Iranian drones are flying freely through the empty US bases now. Iran has already pushed US logistics further away from their border.

    Nothing that we've seen so far suggests that the US has any chance of prevailing over Iran. Also not sure what you're basing the claim that Iran does not have enough drones on. They've been producing them since the war in Ukraine started.

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  • [–] -3 points 7 months ago* (13 children)

    A population of 90 million people is irrelevant to the question of military capability. It is absolutely relevant to a discussion about the insurgency and guerilla warfare that would inevitably follow the conventional war, but I think you and I already agree that there's no way for the U.S. to win that (nor should we try).

    But I don't think the bits of relatively small damage Iran has done to U.S. forces in the region is convincing evidence that they're capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities, even without going nuclear. Launch enough drones and missiles and a few will inevitably get through. But we've also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries. Most importantly though, we have significantly more resources poured into everything that would follow the drones in a full-scale invasion.

    And just to reiterate: I don't think any of this is a good idea, and I don't support any of it. But when you're talking about the significance of damage and casualties caused by Iran, you can't ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.

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  • [–] 11 points 7 months ago (6 children)

    But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries.

    The key is that due to our kleptocratic military industrial complex, we're not able to produce these drones cheaply. Our military and its supply chains are built around producing very small numbers of very expensive weapons. We can't even get Congress to pass a military right to repair. Contractors bilk the taxpayers for spare parts at a 10000% markup, and our system is too corrupt to end their thievery.

    The hard truth is that our military isn't actually built to win wars against competent peer or near-peer opponents. It's built to line the pockets of defense contractors. Or, to use a car analogy, Iran is producing cheap $5k k trucks. Our military is running on $100,000 low margin, high profit SUVs.

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  • [–] 5 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    The F35 for all purchasors, except Israel, but Including US military, requires Lockheed contractor repair services. No manual is provided with purchase.

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  • [–] 7 points 7 months ago

    And that's why Iran could actually win this war. Iran doesn't have to send an expeditionary force to lay siege to Washington DC to win this war. They just need to turtle in and hold out long enough for either US will or treasure to break.

    Honestly, I think Bin Ladin will go down as the greatest strategic genius of the 21st century. For the cost of a handful of lives and a few hundred grand, he tricked a superpower into burning through trillions of dollars and thousands of soldiers. All he had to do was hit the superpower where it hurt the most - its sense of pride. And now, a quarter century later, we're still stuck in Bin Ladin's world, never having learned a damn thing. And we can't keep this up forever. Eventually people will simply stop wanting to buy US treasuries, and the whole debt empire falls to pieces. Simply by forcing the US to spend itself into the poorhouse, Iran can defeat the US without ever striking a single target on American soil.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (3 children)

    Right you just made his point? Cost is relevant as the conflict continues. If the US committed everything it could likely overwhelm the government (probably leading to an Afghanistan 2), but the longer the conflict goes the scales tip in favor of Iran due to these costs.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)
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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (1 child)

    Right this goes to attrition.

    Can this prevent the collapse of the government and a US occupation? Maybe, if it doesn't though it will cause endless insurgency even if the US props up a friendly government.

    Then we just get Afghanistan all over again.

    The real question is can these autonomous cells continue operating their regions independently and for how long. Maintaining governance and a prolonged guerilla campaign aren't the same.

    And you know I hope they do repel the US, but I feel like it's crazy to dismiss it as impossible

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 7 months ago

    Look at Ukraine, Russia has not been able to collapse the government there so far, and it has an army of one and a half million fighting there, and has been bombing Ukraine for four years now. Russia has a far better situation logistically being situated right next to Ukraine and being able to transport troops and materiel by rail. Based on that, in what possible universe, does the US manage to break a country three times the size of Ukraine that's half away across the globe from it?

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  • [–] 8 points 7 months ago* (3 children)

    They don't need to take on the full brunt of the US, they just need to keep the Strait closed to US-friendly traffic until the US economy collapses.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)

    Unless that encourages the US to deploy everything to avoid that. We can't even begin to predict what the idiot in charge will do.

    If he goes that route the government of Iran would probably fall after a lot of death and then a long bloody, and ultimately unsuccessful, occupation would follow.

    Hopefully he's not dumb enough to try, and everyday the US doesn't fully invade does tilt the scales in Iran's favor

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  • [–] 4 points 7 months ago* (1 child)

    The government of Iran won't fall before they mine the Strait, and then it'll be closed without any further input. Then all Iran has to do is survive the occupation while the global economy collapses, eventually starving the occupation of the funds it needs.

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  • [–] 6 points 7 months ago

    capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities

    US strategic options made public are like 300 but instead of guarding a choke point, they rush into higher defense ratios.

    But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries.

    US is not among the 4 drone superpowers. Iran is one of these. US tech is old, expensive, and not high volume production.

    you can’t ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.

    The option they have threatened is mutual assured destruction of global economy. US has avoided Iran oil, and unsanctioned them during this war. It's hard to see why they would escalate more, even if Israel gets to veto.

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