I’m not sure about the troop readiness these days, but afaik, USA is currently very close to its military capacity.

For everything it’s doing by having a quarter of 1 million troop stationed around the world and having between 3 and 5 Aircraft carrier groups floating around the world if they fully commit to an armed conflict with Venezuela they are basically spent.

That’s the moment any army can decide to do whatever the fuck they want and the USA can really basically only bark and look on. (Technically they could of course fight, but that would mean they sacrifice actual defence of homeland). So that would mean that China could take Taiwan, Russia could really take Ukraine or even poke further into Europe. Not to mention the Middle East would basically be without a guard dog.

If this happens this most likely would be the final nail in the coffin of the US Empire and almost analogous with how the Roman empire crumbled. (And of course the ultimate payoff for Vladdy to have helped Donnie get in the White House).

I don’t think there’s a whole lot of risk that the USA will try to take Canada or Greenland because of this.

There are people who are saying that we are at the same point as we were in Germany In the 1930s. I would argue this is much closer to Hitler having just taken all of Europe and now deciding to also go and take on The Russians.

Also don’t forget that Trump is truly one of the dumbest strategists we’ve ever had. The only success he’s having is because he has a very well oiled machine but even a well oiled machine has absolute nonnegotiable thresholds which Donald and Drunk Pete will probably try to ignore by renaming a department from defence to war and by hoping that will work.

Curious what others think about this situation?

E: spelling

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[–] 44 points 10 months ago (7 children)

Well, first of all... no, the US military is absolutely not about to run out of manpower or firepower. The US could simply pull some troops from certain areas to fight in Venezuela. Even if it completely removes troops from, say, the South China Sea, this is not a huge "loss" to the US, as the US doesn't really own anything there - it just functions as a semi-paternalistic peace keeper and guard for its allies.

Second of all, the US is probably not about to engage in a full scale occupation of Venezuala. Instead, someone responsible (maybe a bad person - but responsible) will untangle the US from this mess and say "actually, no, we didn't really mean it. Sorry for the trouble - it's just one of those things, you know?" And everyone will be confused and uneasy, but will shrug and move on.

Russia could really take Ukraine

The Russian military is barely functioning right now.

I don’t think there’s a whole lot of risk that the USA will try to take Canada or Greenland because of this.

There isn't a risk of this because Trump is a dumbass, but more responsible people around him would get in the way and stop it.

If this happens this most likely would be the final nail in the coffin of the US Empire and almost analogous with how the Roman empire crumbled. [...] people who are saying that we are at the same point as we were in Germany In the 1930s. I would argue this is much closer to Hitler having just taken all of Europe and now deciding to also go and take on The Russians.

No... if there is any pop-historical analogue, it would be the change of the Roman Republic to the Roman Empire. The US has one of the largest gdps in the world, a large population, and a massive military industrial complex. The idea that it will cease being one of the main players in global geopolitics is absurd.

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  • [+] 31 points 10 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 13 points 10 months ago

    Yeah, spot on. Even in the event of the US vs the rest of the world combined, the US navy is so disproportionately overpowered as to be able to keep the war off American soil. I think that's a good demonstration of the egregious irresponsible mismanagement of priorities over a sustained amount of time by the malicious sociopaths making decisions in the American government.

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  • [–] [S] 7 points 10 months ago

    Well, I don’t know what that says about me, but I found your baked analysis quite well written and making a lot of sense.

    I agree logistics is at the core of their military success. I think their leadership quality has never been this low though.

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  • [–] 7 points 10 months ago*

    You vastly underestimate the value of the United States' holdings in the South China Sea. They allow the United States to project power throughout the entire globe as well as have a significant degree of control over international shipping.

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  • [–] 4 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    There isn't a risk of this because Trump is a dumbass, but more responsible people around him would get in the way and stop it.

    He's just a figurehead with rapidly falling mental facilities. It's the people around him who are the ones planning and doing this stuff. Who are the responsible people who'd stop it?

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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    The same people who let it happen in the first place, who don't want an occupied Venezuela with massive international scrutiny, but a stable Venezuela with exploitative oil contracts.

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