Ed Zitron has a pretty good analysis of this, pointing out that Nvidia is “investing” in AI cloud providers who then go and buy Nvidia chips. So they’re essentially inventing their own biggest customers.
And then these providers take out big loans using the chips as collateral. So there’s really nothing to go back to Nvidia if they fail.
And none of these are even close to profitable. So they will probably fail.
And Nvidia makes up 7% of the S&P 500 at this point. So if they lose their biggest customers, and their investments, and the marketing hype they’re capitalizing on by propping up these zero-sum chip sales… there’s a potentially large fallout.
That’s not even counting all the other big tech companies that have placed huge bets on AI, and therefore Nvidia. The magnificent 7 all together are more than 30% of the S&P 500. And if Nvidia falls, they probably all fall too.