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[–] 147 points 1 year ago (20 children)

If the last 5 years has taught me anything, it is that stock prices are completely divorced from the realities of the fundamentals of business. It is a clown economy and more like a casino then an honest measure of what a stock is worth. Especially with tech.

AI is way overhyped, to a level we perhaps have never seen before, but I would not expect the stock prices too reflect that.

Look at Tesla. The intrinsic value was no more than 10 billion before he started sieg heiling on national TV and alienated half of the western world.

What will continue to drive the stock prices is the support or acquiescence of governments to it. Do you the United States and the rest that follow.

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  • [–] 47 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    but I would not expect the stock prices too reflect that.

    Agreed. One rule of the stock market is that while it might theoretically rely on sound fundamentals, it can stay irrational longer than you (or anyone) can stay solvent. It will inevitably fall screaming towards reality eventually, but there's no guarantee it will happen within any reasonable timeframe and expecting it to is dangerous. It's a rigged casino, the house always wins, and when they don't their goons will grab you when you try to leave. At this point the billionaires own pretty much the entire house, and their goons are running the world's largest military and police state. "Invest" at your own risk.

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  • [–] 22 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    I think there is a fundamental difference now, the government has bailed out stocks twice in 2008 and 2020. Moved Heaven and Earth with the fed and indirect injections of capital to prevent the rich from losing money. So these stock prices reflect tax dollars billing them out in the downturn.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago

    Why bother worrying about the downturn if the world bends over backwards to stop you hitting the ground?

    It is basically impossible for Visa to go bankrupt, for example. The moment the threat looms, governments are going to leap in and save them. They're too big to fail.

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  • [–] 23 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Look at Tesla. The intrinsic value was no more than 10 billion before he started sieg heiling on national TV and alienated half of the western world.

    My conspiracy theory is that Musk gave multiple investors billions of his personal cash to invest in Tesla stock at key moments. He tells his straw purchasers when to buy hundreds of millions worth of stock in order to pump the price and kill those who short the stock. This scares the shorters out of the market and ultimately removes a natural source of downward pressure on the price. They sell off what they purchase all at once relatively slowly so they can then do it again.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    I had a similar sort of thought but figured it was an automated thing, where they would buy or sell to manipulate the market price with the fund removed from the owners of stock.

    Something like that could have made a fortune as the stock price was gaining and as such been able to manipulate the shit out of the stock price and fuck short Sellers and everything.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    But he invested a billion of his own money....or 0.01% of the TSLA market cap

    No one in STEM takes Musk seriously.

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  • [–] 14 points 1 year ago (11 children)

    The price isn't based on what the company is worth, it's based on what people think the company will be worth in the future. Clearly, a lot of people believe that truly autonomous vehicles are just around the corner, and AI is going to revolutionise everything.

    They're most likely wrong, but it will take a long time for the market to accept that.

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  • [–] 16 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    No rational person would think that Tesla would command the majority of that market of autonomous vehicles, robots, or whatever. Especially not after their Flagship truck turned out to suck in like 20 different ways.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago* (4 children)

    it’s based on what people think the company will be worth in the future

    Not a single person in their right mind thinks that Tesla will ever be worth its current $1.3T market cap. Stock price is based on whether the market movers (not you or I) think that the price will be higher or lower a few weeks/months from now, that's it. The actual intrinsic value/worth of the company makes no difference.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    As someone on r/Wallstreetbets once said, I can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    There's enough people who genuinely believe the company is worth that to keep the value high for a very long time.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago* (2 children)

    There’s enough people who genuinely believe the company is worth that to keep the value high for a very long time.

    I don't think there are. I just think there are a lot of people who believe they're going to be able to get in and out before the Tesla bubble pops. Actual, realistic value of the company has nothing to do with it.

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  • [+] -6 points 1 year ago (4 children)
  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    For those of us who have been around the block a few times, AI is going to just be invisible in a few years, replaced by the new marketing buzzword, probably "Quantum".

    Source: Seen it before when the word was "Cloud". Oh, it's all in the Cloud! Cloud, cloud, cloud.

    Before that it was "Virtualization". It's going to make everything more efficient!

    Man, I need to make an AI powered quantum cloud virtualization.

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  • [+] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)
  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    And yet nobody is currently talking about them, having the marketing push replaced with AI.

    In a few years, AI tech will be silent, behind the scenes, and if anyone mentions it at all it will be "hey, remember when everyone was talking about AI?" while we're all bitching about the new marketing buzzword.

    I've been working in tech for 30+ years and involved in tech for close to 50 now. I've seen this pattern over and over again.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago

    I mean, it's not in the news anymore, but it's definitely talked about. Businesses need to decide if they're hosting on-prem or in the cloud, and if it's cloud they'll want to decide which provider, etc etc. It's just become part of the system.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    Quantum entangled communications that are impossible to evesdrop on exist now, cloud computing is the money machine that allows Amazon to keep expanding, virtualisation is used by effectively every company using computers at scale. (blockchain, I'll admit, was pretty much all hype and vapourware other than laundering drug money and allowing speculation)

    Just because there is marketing hype around a term doesnt mean there isnt anything of value there.

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