...What about after September 2026?

Well, there's one teensy tiny caveat.

Google says that only apps with verified identities will be installable on certified Android devices, which is virtually every Android-based device—if it has Google services on it, it's a certified device.

So, in theory... no gapps, no approval necessary?

Open devs just have to have two versions, as many already do, one signed with Google's spyware and one on github/fdroid with nothing.