I've heard a lot of fear and murmur about whoever succeeding Putin will be one from his inner circle who will be even more radical than him. I really hope something else will happen, but unlikely, unfortunately...
I think you're very right with the element of pride, and it will indeed to a large degree be their continued downfall. Nevertheless I hope (for a miracle?) that there will be more international openness, despite the isolation that both Kremlin and other nations have imposed upon the country. Isolation is at best only going to create stagnation.
The fact that only those with good connections manage to get out of the dire situation makes me want to do something for them. There are good people there too, who are stuck either due to fear or economy. But I can't say I've seen a lot of good treatment of Russians abroad after 2022. I know people who've had to change their surname in order to avoid prejudice abroad. This is what I feel makes it not only more difficult, but also like they are on their own; there is no support to get.
Russia probably won't become a world leader anytime soon indeed, but they don't have to be for the people to live well. And I agree; a major event is likely necessary for proper change to take place. I held my breath when the Wagner group marched towards Moscow, uncertain if something like a civil war would be breaking out. But alas, the same corruption prevailed as always, and the leader was disposed of through an "accident".
In regards to separation, I'm curious if there will protests at governmental levels in oblasts, krais, or republics, like Kaliningrad, Yakutia, Krasnoyarsk Krai (Siberia), or Khabarovsk Krai. Many of the people in these areas are (for the lack of a better word) disconnected from the war in every sense other than what the state tells them. If the illusion of the propaganda breaks, I wonder if they will at any point think "we'll be better off without Moscow"? And the amount of young men Kremlin has siphoned out of Khabarovsk is a very good reason for wanting separation, imho. They are already closer friends with China than with Moscow anyways, it seems to me.