Thank you, I will try to write an executive summary. the gist of it is, tough times coming.
Synthetic fertiliser shortage never ending, lower crop output per input, massive population growth from 2.5 billion to 8.5 billion in ~80 years thanks to synthetic fertilizer and industrialisation. So without synthetic fert, without diesel (farming is very diesel heavy) cheap labour and with a huge global debt making capital investment tightly aligned with cost/benefit then we likely can't produce and transport food for all the people who now live 100's kilometers from it's production. I'm not hard claiming 3 billion but i feel it's a fair assessment weighing agricultural innovations over the last 80 years against the probable the loss of abundant fert/oil/labour/water/pollinators/biosecurity programs
Hey, thanks for taking the time, there is a big collection of sources in the article. What is changing is the global energy economy fracture after the war in Iran and the current agricorp sole focus on yield and cost per tonnage making regenerative farming 'unviable' plus loss of institutional knowledge and an uninvested workforce.
Our farms are literally unable to practice sustainable farming and remain solvent, we don't collect seeds and can't rotate crops. Without investment in biomass fertilizer programs over the next 12-24 months, I suspect the agricorp cost benefit analysis flips and sells off farms and farmland at pennies on the dime to cut losses and maintain quarterly profits. My source on that is, we are up for sale right now, but might be liquidated into the assets like water rights and land value rather then sold wholesale.
Liquid democracy plz
Yes, outdoor work and phones are expensive.