Trump’s three day deadline for Iranian infrastructure explosion passed without incident. Similar statements have also been echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who claimed in a recent post on X that, “IRGC Leaders are trapped like drowning rats in a sewage pipe,” adding that “Iran’s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE. Pumping will soon collapse. GASOLINE SHORTAGES IN IRAN NEXT!”

The blockade strategy—which has continued even as the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly rose above $126 in recent days—is based on two assumptions: that economic pressure will make the Iranian government fold to U.S. demands, and that possible shutdowns of Iranian oil export capacity will inflict imminent infrastructure damage on the country that would make capitulation inevitable.

But several Iranian economic experts and individuals with insight into the government’s pre-war planning said that the country had already viewed a blockade as a likelihood and had restructured their oil and gas logistics with the expectation of facing an extended siege.

“Before the war, Iran had emptied a portion of its storage capacity. That’s why Iran had tens of millions of barrels floating on the sea. It already foresaw the situation. Secondly, 70% of Iran’s oil production is used at home and 30% is exported abroad. Iran could re-channel its oil exports through land, through swapping, through many other means,” said Mostafa Khoshchesm, a security analyst in Tehran close to the Iranian government. “That they [the U.S. government] believe that they can fill Iran’s storage capacity with maximum oil in two to three days or one to two weeks is totally wrong.”

Trump’s risky gamble to stop Iran from exporting oil shows no signs of succeeding, experts say.

Murtaza Hussain May 01, 2026

The U.S. has been racing against the clock to see whether the Iranian economy can be brought to a breaking point before the rest of the world—much of which is already beginning to feel economic pain from the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The administration’s claim that the blockade could destroy Iranian infrastructure, trigger immediate economic collapse, hyperinflation, or shortages, has also been echoed by the New York Times, which recently reported claims from U.S. officials stating that oil wells “cannot be turned on and off, and they would be damaged if they are forced to shut down,” and arguing that these risks would force Iran to “make a deal to avoid such long-term problems.”

But numerous experts inside and outside of Iran strongly disputed the claim that causing a production shutdown on Iranian oil wells would trigger serious harm to the country’s infrastructure, with one expert calling the claim reported in the Times “egregiously false.”