Apparently as I write this National’s overhang is 4 seats. Certainly a strange situation for them and I think ACT and NZ First have done a good job in attracting voters and courting the party vote.
I’m a leftie but I have to acknowledge that at present the mood of the country does not seem to agree with me (apparently they’ve never needed medical care in the public system, amongst other issues). The politicians on the telly seem concerned that special votes could alter things so that seems worth waiting for, but I’m skeptical that they will materially change things.