I disagree. Voting for the person who wins is not winning. It's losing if they win and don't do what you hoped they would do, and you're also losing the higher ground ("well I didn't vote for him", "I told you so"). You're unlikely to win, but the best way to win is to vote for someone who's unlikely to win but who you're comfortable with winning. If they win - you win. If they lose, you get a participation award of being able to tell them "well, if you only voted for my candidate". Or you could run.