Lolwut?

Here's how it ends

The Russians take everything east of the Dnieper and also Odessa

If the Europeans know what's good for them they discover the concept of indivisible security

Western Ukraine is balkanized, all the Banderites get concentrated into a micro rump state around Lviv

Like every other major deal the Chinese have quietly facilitated lately they don't get directly involved other than as being a forum for mediation