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U.S. preparing to force Netherlands to ban ASML from selling to China (nltimes.nl)
submitted 2 months ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 5 points 2 months ago (7 children)

Yes and no. It'll still take many years to get to the same level. ASML has a huge head start

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  • [–] 7 points 2 months ago* (3 children)

    This feels again a bit dismissive. My whole life I have heard "it is okay, China is years away from doing any catch up, unlikely anything happens" and then China proceeds to catch up every. Single. Time.

    if China has replicated the technology, then that is fucked for ASML and any headstart they have will not feel like one in 5 years when suddenly China speeds past with cheaper and better tech.

    I hope ASML won't just sit idle and will instead double the effort into making sure the lead they have stays that way.

    most recent one I can remember was "Chinese cars are years away from quality and safe cars of western countries who have a massive headstart" recently also been hearing that about memory production.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago*

    I get that, nobody should get complacent. I'm from Eindhoven and I know many people at ASML. They are not complacent. They knew this day would come. They're racing for the next big thing even after EUV, of course they are, but nothing lasts forever. The head start is real, China can make a couple of these machines where ASML builds 60 per year. And these machines don't have anywhere near the chip production capacity of ASML's

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  • [–] 2 points 2 months ago*

    Picture is more complicated as far as I understand.

    China caught up to ASML. Not fully. Huawei even proceeded to propose innovation with vertical stacking and overall different chip designs.

    Fine and dandy.

    Machines ASML sell now took a fuck ton of time to even get to demo state.

    Where this gets complicated, ASML is years into developing new generation machines, that will further chip design and production. In different materials than silicone.

    And whether China will or can catch up to this is another question. Whether ASML delivers, is another one.

    This is space race, but they are racing to different planets. All at the same time.

    Painting this as A catching up to B appears extrimely simplistic.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

    I think you're equally dismissive of the extreme complexity of these machines.

    It's built upon an enormously complicated and precise arrangement of processes and infrastructure that took them decades to iterate towards. Even if you knew a shortcut to the answer and had infinite resources to throw at it, sorting out all the kinks is a monumental effort that can't be fixed within a few years by throwing more heads and hands at it.

    I can't overstate how complex these machines are. They are arguably one of the most advanced things mankind has ever built.

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