Had similar thoughts this morning. I think it's clear that many countries are going to head down the Great Firewall route; which is now very effective. It's so hard to bypass and risky that most people don't attempt to. As more countries implement these measures, and the list of countries/datacenters where people can set up XRay proxies (for example) shrinks, it will be easier to detect and block. I imagine if ad-hoc meshes became popular, then they'd be shutdown too. The problem is more political than technological.
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