No need to wonder, it's been obvious for years now.

Being a useful idiot doesn't require the person being aware of their idiotic usefulness. Usually they aren't.

I think Rogan believes he's in charge though. He talks like he's making his own decisions.

Undoubtedly he's being manipulated but yeah at the very least he's a useful idiot.

Yes, and that someone is largely believed to be Thiel.