The other thing that's damaging Reform is the limit on donations from rich expats (who were most likely laundering foreign money) and crypto donations (which were definitely laundering foreign money).

On the other hand, I wouldn't put it past the Tories to join a coalition with Reform.

I don't think Labour's going to call an early election, they're too far underwater right now, and even if they find a competent slightly less centrist leader to replace Starmer, it'll take them a while to restore their credibility.