The damage to Trump’s approval ratings traces to “about a week into the war when markets started to freak out over the likelihood of a prolonged disruption to oil shipments in the Persian Gulf,” wrote Silver, sharing a graph from GasBuddy data.

The gas prices are now well above any other point in Trump’s second term so far — or the last few months of the 2024 election cycle, which was heavily influenced by voters’ concerns about inflation and other economic issues:

Gas prices are likely to a sore point for a president who an election largely on inflation. In 2024, 40 percent of voters in the exit poll said that “high prices for gas, groceries and other goods” was the single most important factor deciding their vote, and they broke 2:1 for Trump. It would be hard to pick a more visible indicator of affordability.

Silver doesn't discuss it, but normally, presidents also "prep" the public for a conflict

explain why it's necessary and such, and Trump has broken from the norm on that.