I'm not saying that the people who were angry at the regime have suddenly flipped to being supporters. That's a rather extreme interpretation of my statements.

But what we are seeing out of Iran is that those ongoing protests have seemingly disappeared entirely. And not as a result of the crackdown. There were ongoing waves of protests even after significant numbers of protesters were killed, and that tracks with what we know about civil unrest more broadly; throughout history the slaughter of dissenters has never been an effective method for ending civil unrest. When regimes do survive mass uprisings, what you'll invariably find is that it's because they made sufficient concessions to at least somewhat address the cause of the unrest, even if those concessions come in the wake of, or alongside, a brutal crackdown. But violence alone never works.

And yet, the regime still stands, despite polling from before the war suggesting that 70-90% of Iranians supported regime change to some degree. If there was going to be a civil war, a coup, a mass uprising, surely now would be the time? So what happened?

Well, one, it's hard to get out in the streets when you're being bombed. Two, it's hard to gather a movement against a regime that's suddenly justified in all of their rhetoric about how they were the only thing defending you against American and Israeli aggression.

On top of that, you have to remember that Iran has a very different media environment from us. For Iranian dissidents, the idea that the US was going to support and assist in a transition of power, perhaps allowing Iran to finally become a welcome member of the international community, was really important. That notion was shattered when the US turned up and just started bombing the hell out of them. Hard to imagine they're your saviours waiting in the wings when they murder 180 schoolgirls.

What they wanted was a regime change on their terms. A chance to build a new government that would stand for the needs of Iranian people. What they're now facing, instead, looks like years to decades of American occupation, just like Iraq and Afghanistan. The next in a long line of imperial projects. They wanted freedom and they're being offered a new form of oppression. So why bother? Why risk your life fighting if the alternative to the government you have is an American boot on your neck and some asshole from Alabama who doesn't even speak your language gunning you down in the street for going to get groceries. At least the regime kills you for fighting back. Americans will just kill you for looking different.

Here, listen to Iranians tell it in their own words; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/14/anti-regime-iranians-turn-on-trump-us