humanspiral comments on Gas imports or solar panels?

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 point 8 months ago (2 children)

The analysis I'm presenting provides 1kw or 1600mw of continuous 24/7 power at 0 electricity cost including 5% financing costs. Showing that this works in one of the most hostile places for winter solar in the world.

There are indeed a lot of practicalities that can improve upon this. Summer demand is typically 1/2 of winter peak demand. The H2 electrolysis system is there purely to monetize all electricity generated at 4c/kwh. Selling the massive summer surplus at 4c/kwh or more makes more money than H2. Selling the "free baseload" for anything at all makes money, or selling H2 for more than $2/kg.

Wholesale rates in estonia/regional market are 15c/kwh in winter. The model to provide 1600mw baseload takes about 200gw of solar (125kw per kw baseload), that still provides surpluses on average winter day, before accounting for less than 24/7 of peak usage, diverting heat to fall storage systems, using wind instead of all solar, trade with less hostile solar regions bidirectionally/seasonally, use EVs as even bigger battery buffer.

For one, the 1600mw peak isn't as relevant as the 27gwh/day peak = 1100mwh/hour baseload covered by battery = up to 30% smaller system. But even with original large system, there would be 10-20gwh/day in winter available to be sold at up to 15c/kwh profit. $1.5-$3M/day. The giant size of the solar would mean that electricity rates are 4c/kwh everywhere else in the region in other seasons, and H2 system is still needed to ensure 4c/kwh monetization even as it lowers rates everywhere around them. ie. a system this big forces permanent 4c/kwh wholesale electricity anywhere it can trade to for 3 seasons.

Even if there are much more profitable locations for solar than Estonia, the high cost of transmission still makes local systems pay off. Transmission links are a resilience option that is actually more expensive than more local solar, but pays off when neighbours don't adopt solar. OTOH, very small transmission lines work well with battery systems in that they can be trickle imported at 24 hour rate in anticipation of weather/demand/battery charge level rather than as a response to instant supply/demand imbalance surge.

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[–] boonhet@sopuli.xyz 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

Wholesale rates in estonia/regional market are 15c/kwh in winter

The pricing is hourly and actually gets up to 5€/kwh which is the limit (this is where even modest sized batteries would help a lot) and is sometimes reached, but average was 19 cents in january and february. That does not include the transmission fee which is also several cents. Of course this is where batteries would help.

But mostly my musings about the required battery capacity were with the idea that we should produce our entire demand or more locally, all year round, because people get SUPER pissy when electricity prices go up (which they do any time we have to import electricity).

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[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 0 points 8 months ago

required battery capacity were with the idea that we should produce our entire demand or more locally, all year round

The model I've been discussing is massive solar for winter reliance with massive H2 for summer surpluses. Role of battery is to both lengthen electrolysis capacity utilization in summer, and provide winter resilience. There are big improvements to original model for Estonia possible by increasing battery size for electrolyzer reduction that matches the very wide summer solar curve. Translates to either 5.1% financing/ROI costs or $188/kw baseload profit at 5% financing. Provides 3 weeks of continuous record low winter solar daily production, while still charging on an average winter day. (Nebraska model benefits from more electrolyzers and less battery instead, due to more reliable winter)

By shifting the ratio to 125 kW Solar / 65 kW Electrolyzer / 363 kWh Battery (363 kWh is the 5.5-hour summer night requirement), you gain two massive structural advantages:

1. 24/7 Summer Electrolysis (The Profit Engine)

Previously, your 90 kW electrolyzer had to shut down at night because the 185 kWh battery was too small. Now:

Nightly Draw: 66 kW (Electrolyzer + Load)

×cross

×

5.5 hours = 363 kWh.
The Match: Your battery now perfectly fits the Estonian summer night. You finally achieve 100% utilization of the electrolyzer for the entire month of June.
Revenue Impact: Even though the electrolyzer is "smaller" (65 kW vs 90 kW), it runs 24 hours a day instead of ~16. Your daily H₂ yield actually increases or stays flat because you've eliminated the "nightly blackout."

2. Winter Resilience (The Survival Engine)

This is where the "Latitude Tax" starts working in your favor.

Old Buffer (185 kWh): ~7.7 days of 1 kW baseload.
New Buffer (363 kWh): ~15.1 days of 1 kW baseload with zero solar input.
Practical Winter: In a typical Estonian December (30 kWh/day avg), your battery will almost never deplete. You have built a "Fortress Estonia" that can survive a two-week blizzard without the datacenter dropping.

3. Updated Financial Estimates (with 35% Premium)

Solar (125 kW): $59,062
Electrolyzer (65 kW): $43,875 (Down from $60,750)
LFP Battery (363 kWh): $39,204 (Up from $19,980)
Total CapEx: $142,141 (Only ~$2,300 more than the previous model!)
Annual Debt (5%): $12,591
Annual O&M (1%): $1,421
Total Annual Cost: $14,012

4. The "Zero-Cost" H₂ Check

Est. Annual H₂ Yield: ~7,100 kg (Higher utilization compensates for lower peak capacity).
H₂ Revenue (@ $2/kg): $14,200
Net Profit: $188 / year

Summary: The "Stability" Optimization

By trading 25 kW of electrolysis capacity for 178 kWh of battery storage, you have:

Maintained the $0.00/kWh baseload cost.
Achieved 24/7 summer operation.
Doubled your winter survival window from 7.7 days to 15.1 days.

This is likely the most robust version of the Estonian model yet. At this point, your bottleneck is no longer the battery or the electrolyzer—it is simply the total photons available in the Baltic sky.

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