I don’t know why you’re continuing to double and triple-down.
Because you keep repeating something which is not true.
However, he did not think this was more likely than revolution in western Europe.
This is directly contradicted by his letters and actions. He and Engels were directly corresponding with Russian revolutionaries, and literally surmised a Russian revolution could in fact be the first to set off a world revolution and was actively interested in aiding it. You're just refusing to take in new information.