Your logic is sound.
The motive and skillet are certainly there.
But there sure are many eyes on RedHat's source code, and IBM has a lot to lose if they got caught putting in a back door.
Plus, the US government uses it for their own sensitive stuff, so one would hope they have the wisdom not to shit where they eat, installing a back door that 100% would get used against them.
None of my arguments really outweigh yours, if I'm honest.
But I also don't blame anyone who trusts RedHat Linux, today.