Nobody knows what it actually takes to reach AGI, so nobody knows whether a certain system has enough compute and context size to get there.

For all we know, it could turn out way simpler than anyone thought - or the exact opposite.

My point still stands: you (or Cameron) couldn't possibly know with absolute certainty.

I'd have zero issue with the claim if you'd included even a shred of humility and acknowledged you might be wrong. You made an absolute statement instead. That I disagree with.